713
FXUS61 KRLX 171720
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES,
THEN DRY FOR REST OF THE DAY. MORE ACTIVE BY MIDWEEK WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CLOSING OUT THE WEEK. VERY COLD THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1217 PM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING,
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND AREAS
TO THE WEST. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS, BUT THOSE SPOTS ALSO SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEFORE
THE END OF THE DAY.
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75-1.00"
AREAWIDE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE BENEFICIAL WITH FLOODING NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE, SO IT MAY BE
A GOOD IDEA TO TAKE IT SLOWER ON THE ROADS DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WEDNESDAY EVENING, LEAVING MUCH
DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER IN ITS WAKE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT, WITH
DETERMINISTIC, DEFINITE POPS OVER PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE OR HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25" AND 1.00" COULD BE PICKED
UP DURING THE DAY, WITH THE LOWER OF THE RANGE BEING COMMON FARTHER
WEST ACROSS OHIO AND KENTUCKY. THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE WILL BE
MORE COMMON IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAKES TEMPERATURE FORECASTS A BIT TRICKY. LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT CAN EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S, WHILE LOCATIONS TO ITS NORTH WILL STAY COOLER,
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES
TO DROP TO AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST,
BUT THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW OR WINTRY MIX. ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LOWLANDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF BY THE AFTERNOON.
BRIEF STINT OF HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THURSDAY, THOUGH
OVERCAST SKIES WILL STILL REMAIN WITH POST-FRONTAL NNW FLOW HANGING
AROUND. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH 30S
AND LOWER 40S FORECASTED ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONCERNED ABOUT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, BUT THE NNW
FLOW DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO SPAWN A MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FETCH FROM THE LAKES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY BRINGING A WINTRY MIX, RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.
CURRENTLY MODELS DO NOT HAVE A PINPOINT ON EXACT P-TYPES.
CURRENT THINKING IS COLD RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS, WITH POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS A SHALLOW WARM NOSE WILL
EXIST ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OHIO, WHERE SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER BELOW FREEZING BUT NOT A STRONG DENDRITIC GROWTH
SIGNATURE. STILL, THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE MIGHT BE TRICKY IN
SOME SPOTS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. SLICK SPOTS COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, SO WINTRY MIX AND SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN ACROSS A BULK OF THE LOWLANDS AND FOOTHILLS. A
CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT LEADING
TO A FLASH FREEZE. NEW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY AS
A RESULT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS COLD AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. NNW FLOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE, SO KEPT CHANCES FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE UPSLOPE
TYPICALLY EXISTS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY TO KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY BECOMES ANOTHER
TRICKY FORECAST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. MODELS OF COURSE ARE NOT SET ON A
SOLUTION, BUT COLD RAIN AND MAYBE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE POSSIBLE. THESE DETAILS ARE NOWHERE NEAR
FINALIZED THOUGH AND A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT
FOR NOW SOME MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN THE AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY.
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1211 PM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING,
LEAVING A LINGERING MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN WV
MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS AREAWIDE. IN ADDITION, THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LLWS TO SOME TERMINALS BY 1400Z. BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY MAY VARY DEPENDING
ON INTENSITY OF SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M L H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JMC
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