355
FXUS61 KRLX 171957
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
257 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
GRADUAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN WEDNESDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK, THEN TURNING COLD THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1217 PM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING,
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND AREAS
TO THE WEST. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS, BUT THOSE SPOTS ALSO SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEFORE
THE END OF THE DAY.
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75-1.00"
AREAWIDE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE BENEFICIAL WITH FLOODING NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE, SO IT MAY BE
A GOOD IDEA TO TAKE IT SLOWER ON THE ROADS DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WEDNESDAY EVENING, LEAVING MUCH
DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER IN ITS WAKE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...
PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH UPSLOPE WNW'LY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WE BLENDED IN SOME SREF POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP PRECIP GOING LONGER THAN THE NATIONAL BLEND
WAS SHOWING. THIS ACTUALLY MESHES WELL WITH THE CENTRAL GUIDANCE
QPF FORECAST, WHICH HAD LIGHT QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS BEYOND 06Z.
PRECIP SHOULD START MOSTLY AS RAIN WITH TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, AS TEMPS DROP BELOW 32F
IN THE MOUNTAINS, WE CAN SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN START TO WORK
IN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE MOIST LAYER BECOMES SHALLOW AND
LIMITED TO WARMER THAN THE -10C LEVEL. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE, SO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, MAINLY FOR SOME OF OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES.
ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY, AND MORNING
CLOUDS MAY YIELD TO AT LEAST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE LOOK TO STAY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN
TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID-30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER IN THE
LOWLANDS, BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST, WITH 20S AGAIN IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 30S TO MID-40S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY START THE PERIOD DRY, BUT
THINGS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER
THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND A LAGGING SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS SOME LIFT
AND PRECIP TO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW
AT FIRST, WITH SATURATION BELOW -10C ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS,
INDICATING A POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SCENARIO - FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGES OVER TO PLAIN RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING. FOR NOW, WE SHOW THE
MOUNTAINS STARTING AS SNOW AROUND MIDDAY, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THEY COULD ALSO START OFF WITH A MIX OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY
MORNING IF THE INITIAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW ENOUGH. HOWEVER,
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON
AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THE -10C LINE CREEPS DOWN
INTO THE SATURATED LAYER, ALLOWING FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH.
BY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, POPS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA, AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPS DROP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS,
BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD PICK UP A COUPLE OF INCHES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT, AS
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE PRECIP
MOSTLY END BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT NW'LY FLOW. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE DRIER AND FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, FRIDAY MAY SEE LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
PEAK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, WITH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LIKELY STAYING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WE CAN EXPECT SOME VERY COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE TOO BAD ON PAPER, BUT
GUSTY NW'LY WINDS WILL BRING SOME BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND WIND
CHILLS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL,
WITH UPPER 20S TO MID-30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND MID-TEENS TO
MID-20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES AND CALMER
WINDS, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY COLD,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD. THAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WE COULD SEE LOWS IN
THE TEENS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, SOME S'LY WINDS RETURN, AND
WITH IT THE START OF A MODEST WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1211 PM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING,
LEAVING A LINGERING MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN WV
MOUNTAINS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS AREAWIDE. IN ADDITION, THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LLWS TO SOME TERMINALS BY 1400Z. BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY MAY VARY DEPENDING
ON INTENSITY OF SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS AND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JMC
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