173
FXUS61 KRLX 180407
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1107 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
QUICKLY TRAVERSING HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK, THEN COLD THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY...
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND WEBCAMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND
SOUTHERN WV THIS EVENING, DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPS FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THINKING REMAINS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ADDITIONALLY, MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
DOWNWARD TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED
ON TRENDS THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, LOWERING SOME
OF THE TYPICAL VALLEY COLD SPOTS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN INITIAL
CLEAR CONDITIONS AMID LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LOW DEW POINTS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT, WITH SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT PRESENT WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING/LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
REGION ALONG A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH SOME SHOWERS
LIKELY MOVING INTO THE MID-OHIO VALLEY BY DAWN ON WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN SUCH, TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF LATER TONIGHT OR EVEN
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. FINALLY, PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER TODAY
LIMITED MIXING, KEEPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP,
GRADUALLY MIXES OUT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
AS OF 340 PM TUESDAY...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, THROUGH THIS
EVENING TO REPRESENT THE LATEST TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 1217 PM TUESDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING,
LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND AREAS
TO THE WEST. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS, BUT THOSE SPOTS ALSO SHOULD SEE CLEARING BEFORE
THE END OF THE DAY.
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ANYWHERE FROM 0.75-1.00"
AREAWIDE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE BENEFICIAL WITH FLOODING NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE, SO IT MAY BE
A GOOD IDEA TO TAKE IT SLOWER ON THE ROADS DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WEDNESDAY EVENING, LEAVING MUCH
DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER IN ITS WAKE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...
PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH UPSLOPE WNW'LY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WE BLENDED IN SOME SREF POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP PRECIP GOING LONGER THAN THE NATIONAL BLEND
WAS SHOWING. THIS ACTUALLY MESHES WELL WITH THE CENTRAL GUIDANCE
QPF FORECAST, WHICH HAD LIGHT QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS BEYOND 06Z.
PRECIP SHOULD START MOSTLY AS RAIN WITH TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, AS TEMPS DROP BELOW 32F
IN THE MOUNTAINS, WE CAN SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN START TO WORK
IN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE MOIST LAYER BECOMES SHALLOW AND
LIMITED TO WARMER THAN THE -10C LEVEL. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE, SO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, MAINLY FOR SOME OF OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES.
ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY, AND MORNING
CLOUDS MAY YIELD TO AT LEAST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE LOOK TO STAY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN
TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID-30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER IN THE
LOWLANDS, BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST, WITH 20S AGAIN IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 30S TO MID-40S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY START THE PERIOD DRY, BUT
THINGS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER
THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND A LAGGING SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS SOME LIFT
AND PRECIP TO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW
AT FIRST, WITH SATURATION BELOW -10C ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS,
INDICATING A POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SCENARIO - FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGES OVER TO PLAIN RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING. FOR NOW, WE SHOW THE
MOUNTAINS STARTING AS SNOW AROUND MIDDAY, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THEY COULD ALSO START OFF WITH A MIX OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY
MORNING IF THE INITIAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW ENOUGH. HOWEVER,
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON
AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THE -10C LINE CREEPS DOWN
INTO THE SATURATED LAYER, ALLOWING FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH.
BY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, POPS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA, AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPS DROP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS,
BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD PICK UP A COUPLE OF INCHES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT, AS
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE PRECIP
MOSTLY END BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT NW'LY FLOW. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE DRIER AND FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, FRIDAY MAY SEE LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
PEAK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, WITH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LIKELY STAYING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WE CAN EXPECT SOME VERY COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE TOO BAD ON PAPER, BUT
GUSTY NW'LY WINDS WILL BRING SOME BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND WIND
CHILLS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL,
WITH UPPER 20S TO MID-30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND MID-TEENS TO
MID-20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES AND CALMER
WINDS, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY COLD,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD. THAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WE COULD SEE LOWS IN
THE TEENS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, SOME S'LY WINDS RETURN, AND
WITH IT THE START OF A MODEST WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EARLY GIVING WAY
TO INCREASING/LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR VSBY WITH FOG AT BKW/EKN CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE MID-OHIO VALLEY NEAR
DAWN, GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS BRINGS A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, ALONG WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO
25 KTS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE QUITE VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN A FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION, THIS SYSTEM
MAY BRING LLWS TO SOME TERMINALS BY ~1500Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD
OCCUR AT BKW/EKN OVERNIGHT WITH FOG. RESTRICTIONS ON WEDNESDAY
MAY VARY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 12/18/24
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EST 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H L M H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...GW/JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...GW
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