704
FXUS61 KRLX 180657
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SOAKING RAIN TODAY. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK, THEN COLD THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CREATING A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL RIDE
ALONG A FRONT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA STARTING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST.
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND CALM WINDS, TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. THIS
LEADS TO SOME CONCERNS ABOUT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. MESO NAM AND HRRR SHOW THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP JUST
ENOUGH TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. IN
ADDITION, AFTER A WARM DAY ON TUESDAY, SURFACES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING ON PAVEMENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION THOUGH.
WITH THE COLD FRONT SPLITTING THE AREA TODAY, THERE WILL BE
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S, WHILE EXTREME
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE THE
LOWER 60S.
AS THE WAVE PASSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL END. A SMALL LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HOWEVER AND COMBINE WITH AN
UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES IN THAT
MOISTURE LAYER WILL NOT INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW,
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. BY LATE TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SOME FLURRIES IN THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...
PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD, BUT WILL BE MOSTLY
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH UPSLOPE WNW'LY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WE BLENDED IN SOME SREF POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP PRECIP GOING LONGER THAN THE NATIONAL BLEND
WAS SHOWING. THIS ACTUALLY MESHES WELL WITH THE CENTRAL GUIDANCE
QPF FORECAST, WHICH HAD LIGHT QPF IN THE MOUNTAINS BEYOND 06Z.
PRECIP SHOULD START MOSTLY AS RAIN WITH TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, AS TEMPS DROP BELOW 32F
IN THE MOUNTAINS, WE CAN SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN START TO WORK
IN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE MOIST LAYER BECOMES SHALLOW AND
LIMITED TO WARMER THAN THE -10C LEVEL. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE, SO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, MAINLY FOR SOME OF OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES.
ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY, AND MORNING
CLOUDS MAY YIELD TO AT LEAST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WE LOOK TO STAY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN
TO THE UPPER 20S TO MID-30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER IN THE
LOWLANDS, BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST, WITH 20S AGAIN IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS FROM THE LOW 30S TO MID-40S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY START THE PERIOD DRY, BUT
THINGS QUICKLY MOISTEN UP AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER
THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND A LAGGING SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS SOME LIFT
AND PRECIP TO THE AREA. THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHALLOW
AT FIRST, WITH SATURATION BELOW -10C ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS,
INDICATING A POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SCENARIO - FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANGES OVER TO PLAIN RAIN LATER IN THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING. FOR NOW, WE SHOW THE
MOUNTAINS STARTING AS SNOW AROUND MIDDAY, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THEY COULD ALSO START OFF WITH A MIX OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY
MORNING IF THE INITIAL MOISTURE IS SHALLOW ENOUGH. HOWEVER,
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON
AS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THE -10C LINE CREEPS DOWN
INTO THE SATURATED LAYER, ALLOWING FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH.
BY FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, POPS WILL START TO DIMINISH AS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA, AND ALL
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPS DROP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS,
BUT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD PICK UP A COUPLE OF INCHES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN SATURDAY NIGHT, AS
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE PRECIP
MOSTLY END BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT NW'LY FLOW. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE DRIER AND FEATURE SOME SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, FRIDAY MAY SEE LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
PEAK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, WITH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LIKELY STAYING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WE CAN EXPECT SOME VERY COLD WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE TOO BAD ON PAPER, BUT
GUSTY NW'LY WINDS WILL BRING SOME BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND WIND
CHILLS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL,
WITH UPPER 20S TO MID-30S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND MID-TEENS TO
MID-20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES AND CALMER
WINDS, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY COLD,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE
OVERHEAD. THAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WE COULD SEE LOWS IN
THE TEENS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, SOME S'LY WINDS RETURN, AND
WITH IT THE START OF A MODEST WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA WHERE SOME DENSE FOG WAS CAUSING RESTRICTIONS.
A SYSTEM WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY, EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, EXPECT MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR IN WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND NORTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY SLIGHTLY.
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 12/18/24
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page