875
FXUS61 KRLX 181428
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
928 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SOAKING RAIN TODAY. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING VERY COLD THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 925 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND ADDED IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDER THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. KEPT THUNDER
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY, AND WILL WATCH FOR TRENDS TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE
EXPANDED FARTHER NORTHWARD.
ELECTED TO PUT OUT AN SPS FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES
TO ECHO SPS FROM MID SHIFT CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING, AND
PRECIPITATION IS QUICK HITTING AND SPOTTY ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES,
SO THINKING MAINTAINING AN SPS THERE WILL WORK OUT VERSUS ANY
WINTER UPGRADES OR HEADLINES.
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CREATING A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL RIDE
ALONG A FRONT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA STARTING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST.
DUE TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND CALM WINDS, TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. THIS
LEADS TO SOME CONCERNS ABOUT POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. MESO NAM AND HRRR SHOW THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP JUST
ENOUGH TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AS THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. IN
ADDITION, AFTER A WARM DAY ON TUESDAY, SURFACES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREEZING ON PAVEMENT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION THOUGH.
WITH THE COLD FRONT SPLITTING THE AREA TODAY, THERE WILL BE
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S, WHILE EXTREME
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE THE
LOWER 60S.
AS THE WAVE PASSES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING, MOST PRECIPITATION WILL END. A SMALL LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HOWEVER AND COMBINE WITH AN
UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES IN THAT
MOISTURE LAYER WILL NOT INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW,
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. BY LATE TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SOME FLURRIES IN THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 232 AM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE TAPERING OFF EARLY IN THE MORNING
WITH A ADDITIONAL MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND THE AREA WITH SOME CLEARING OCCURRING FROM SE TO NW
DURING THE DAY, AS NNW FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 232 AM WEDNESDAY...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY'S MESS
BEING MORE DELAYED IN ARRIVAL. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWLANDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 6AM-7AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MORNING, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES.
INITIALLY, THERE MAY BE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ACROSS
SE OHIO AND THE TRI-STATE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES RISE MOST LOCATIONS
BELOW 2,500 FEET IN ELEVATION WILL SEE SNOW OR MIX CHANGE TO ALL
RAIN; UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FORCING
A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. BETWEEN 2" AND 5"
INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. UP AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NNW FLOW
REMAINING DOMINANT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH TEENS POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4,000 FEET. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY KEEP A BREEZY NW WIND, PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH COULD LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE OR
NEGATIVE DIGITS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH A BIT OF A WARMING
TREND SPAWNING MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CLIMB BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER MESSY
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT COULD BE IN THE CARDS ON CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. COLD RAIN MAY BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
HERE, BUT MODELS ARE THINKING SOME FREEZING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO PUT STOCK IN THIS
AS IT COULD CHANGE COMPLETELY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
WILL BE SOMETHING INTERESTING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 525 AM WEDNESDAY...
A SYSTEM WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY, EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, EXPECT MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHEAST
OHIO, AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H L H M H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H L H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY
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