401
FXUS61 KRLX 181813
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
113 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS END TONIGHT WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY,
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA ALONG A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, JUST TO OUR WEST, ALONG WITH STRONG
SW FLOW/LLJ ACROSS THE AREA, HAS HELPED TO TRANSPORT ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PW AIR INTO OUR REGION TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TAKING HOLD. THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK BEST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
SOMETIME BETWEEN 00-03Z. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LOW CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ITS WAKE, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY DZ/FZDZ ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT/THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY, WILL SEE COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM, BUT IT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY, WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
OCCURRING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 232 AM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE TAPERING OFF EARLY IN THE MORNING
WITH A ADDITIONAL MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HANG AROUND THE AREA WITH SOME CLEARING OCCURRING FROM SE TO NW
DURING THE DAY, AS NNW FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 232 AM WEDNESDAY...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY'S MESS
BEING MORE DELAYED IN ARRIVAL. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE LOWLANDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 6AM-7AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MORNING, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES.
INITIALLY, THERE MAY BE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN ACROSS
SE OHIO AND THE TRI-STATE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES RISE MOST LOCATIONS
BELOW 2,500 FEET IN ELEVATION WILL SEE SNOW OR MIX CHANGE TO ALL
RAIN; UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FORCING
A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. BETWEEN 2" AND 5"
INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. UP AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NNW FLOW
REMAINING DOMINANT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH TEENS POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
4,000 FEET. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY KEEP A BREEZY NW WIND, PRIMARILY SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH COULD LIKELY CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE OR
NEGATIVE DIGITS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH A BIT OF A WARMING
TREND SPAWNING MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CLIMB BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER MESSY
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT COULD BE IN THE CARDS ON CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. COLD RAIN MAY BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
HERE, BUT MODELS ARE THINKING SOME FREEZING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO PUT STOCK IN THIS
AS IT COULD CHANGE COMPLETELY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
WILL BE SOMETHING INTERESTING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 105 PM WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AND AREAS
OF MVFR AND LOCAL LIFR ACROSS THE AREA IN LOW CEILINGS AND VSBYS
PARTICULARLY IN HEAVIER POCKETS OF PRECIPITATION. ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WV AND SOUTHWEST VA.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER 00-02Z
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF -DZ/-FZDZ WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
IN ADDITION, OVERNIGHT, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME AREAS NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER MAY IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AFTER 06Z.
AFTER 12-14Z THURSDAY, EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
LOCAL VFR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H M M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M H M H H H H M
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...SL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page