954
FXUS61 KRLX 190129
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
829 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS END THIS EVENING WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND RAIN
POSSIBLE FRIDAY, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHWEST
POCAHONTAS, SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH, AND SOUTHEAST WEBSTER ZONES
FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE. GIVEN SLIGHTLY LESSER COVERAGE/IMPACTS,
OPTED TO ISSUE A SPS OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHWEST RANDOLPH COUNTY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA ALONG A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH, JUST TO OUR WEST, ALONG WITH STRONG
SW FLOW/LLJ ACROSS THE AREA, HAS HELPED TO TRANSPORT ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PW AIR INTO OUR REGION TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TAKING HOLD. THUNDER CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK BEST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
SOMETIME BETWEEN 00-03Z. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LOW CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ITS WAKE, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY DZ/FZDZ ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT/THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY, WILL SEE COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM, BUT IT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY, WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
OCCURRING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY, BRINGING SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, BUT MODELS SHOW DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF. OVERALL, 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 131 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF QUIET WEATHER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S FOR MOST, BUT RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CAUSE MONDAY
TO MODERATE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S FOR
THE LOWLANDS.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, BUT A FEW MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
JUST IN TIME FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF MODEL
DISCONTINUITY AT THIS TIME, AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AT PRESENT WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THEREAFTER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED
OUT. THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED DRIZZLE. DRY WEATHER THEN MOVES IN AREA-WIDE ON
THURSDAY AMID MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT
OF CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY.
LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS AT PRESENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAWN.
MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION OR MIST. CIGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
LIGHT NW/NNW SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
WITH FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS OF
15-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILING RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY
FROM THE FORECAST. BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 12/19/24
UTC 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
EST 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H H M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522-523-
526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW
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