621
FXUS61 KRLX 190626
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, DRIZZLE, OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN/NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND RAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM THURSDAY...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS DRIZZLE, FREEZING
DRIZZLE, OR SOME LIGHT SNOW. WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS,
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN LATER THIS MORNING,
BRINGING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE. EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY, BRINGING SUPPORT FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, BUT MODELS SHOW DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY REMAINING SNOW
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF. OVERALL, 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 131 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF QUIET WEATHER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S FOR MOST, BUT RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CAUSE MONDAY
TO MODERATE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S FOR
THE LOWLANDS.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, BUT A FEW MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM APPROACHING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
JUST IN TIME FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF MODEL
DISCONTINUITY AT THIS TIME, AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1225 AM THURSDAY...
A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
DECK WILL MAINLY BE MVFR IN THE LOWLANDS, WITH SOME IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED, POSSIBLY FALLING
AS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
THE STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A CUMULUS DECK
TODAY, DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PRECIPITATION COULD CAUSE LOWER
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 12/19/24
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M L M H M L H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M H M H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ522-
523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page