669
FXUS61 KRLX 191828
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION WILL ALLOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO PROSPER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE SAILS IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ORPHANED
MOISTURE FROM A PREVIOUS SYSTEM RETAINS RESIDENCY OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE NOTED WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA AT THE TIME OF WRITING. CLOUDS ARE PROGGED TO
THICKEN ONCE MORE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ENCROACHING ARRIVAL OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, COUPLED WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING THIS
EVENING AND WILL ARRIVE ON OUR DOORSTEP DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE
SPLITTING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE, WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT THIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW
MARCHES EASTWARD. THIS GIVES RISE TO ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM, THEN CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW
CONGLOMERATION AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY AS PRECIPITATION OVERTAKES THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE DENOTES A DECENT BAND OF MOISTURE
DROPPING DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MEANDERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF WHEN WE'LL SEE ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH THEN PROSPERS INTO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES COULD PICK UP A FEW TENTHS
TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITHIN THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
TIME SPAN. ELSEWHERE, WHILE POCKETS OF SNOW COULD BECOME
PROBABLE LATE IN THE PERIOD DOWN IN THE LOWLANDS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOWER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THE PASSAGE
OF THE WARM FRONT WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 40S, WHICH WILL KEEP THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP-TYPE AS
MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY.
WITH THIS ISSUANCE, IT WAS ELECTED UPON BY COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WINTER HEADLINES
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY'S EVENT AND ALLOW FOR TIME TO SEE MODEL
EVOLUTION IN REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WILL HOIST UP A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW ALONG OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE WE DON'T
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING ICE WITH THE ONSET OF THIS
DISTURBANCE, THERE COULD BE A FEW ICY PATCHES THAT MAY ATTEMPT
TO FORM DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITHIN POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF IT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
WINTRY MIX WITH SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE LOWLANDS
FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXTENT OF THIS REALLY DEPENDS ON TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SEEM PLAUSIBLE, BUT
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE LOWLANDS IS STILL A QUESTION MARK AS THE WARM
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING TO RISE AS THIS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WILL LEAVE MENTION IN THE HWO TO COVER
POSSIBLE SLICK ROADS IN SPOTS. BY AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE STEADY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS WILL BE ALL RAIN.
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FORCING A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE. A GRADUAL
TAPER IN ACTIVITY TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOUNTAINS OF COURSE WILL SEE HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS, RANGING BETWEEN 1" AND 4" INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ABOVE 4" INCHES ABOVE 3,000 FEET ELEVATION. THE LOWLANDS COULD EVEN
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH,
DEPENDING ON WHEN THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH UPSLOPE NNW FLOW. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING. MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S WITH THE MOUNTAINS
STAYING DOWN IN THE TEENS AND 20S. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS COULD CREATE SOME
COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE AND NEGATIVE DIGITS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD SUNDAY, THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM MEANING WIND CHILLS WON'T BE QUITE AS QUARRELSOME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND QUIET THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON SUNDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE LOWLANDS FINALLY
REACHING THE 40S.
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE WITH A SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
STILL DIVERGENT ON A SOLUTION, BUT A WET CHRISTMAS IS MIGHT BE A
POSSIBILITY. STILL TOO FAR OUT TO BE CONFIDENT IN IT THOUGH.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY RISING INTO LOW END VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES OOZE INTO THE ARE DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY ENCASE THE FLIGHT
SPACE WITHIN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLIDE IN
ALONG A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. DURING WHICH TIME,
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MAY REACH
DOWN INTO THE IFR BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
CALM WINDS TODAY WILL TRIUMPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY PRECEDING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LIFTING CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...MEK
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