699
FXUS61 KRLX 191834
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
134 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TURNING
DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION WILL ALLOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO PROSPER INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE SAILS IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ORPHANED
MOISTURE FROM A PREVIOUS SYSTEM RETAINS RESIDENCY OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE NOTED WITHIN OUR
FORECAST AREA AT THE TIME OF WRITING. CLOUDS ARE PROGGED TO
THICKEN ONCE MORE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ENCROACHING ARRIVAL OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKER.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, COUPLED WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING THIS
EVENING AND WILL ARRIVE ON OUR DOORSTEP DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE
SPLITTING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE, WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT THIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW
MARCHES EASTWARD. THIS GIVES RISE TO ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM, THEN CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW
CONGLOMERATION AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY AS PRECIPITATION OVERTAKES THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE DENOTES A DECENT BAND OF MOISTURE
DROPPING DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MEANDERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF WHEN WE'LL SEE ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, WHICH THEN PROSPERS INTO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES COULD PICK UP A FEW TENTHS
TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITHIN THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
TIME SPAN. ELSEWHERE, WHILE POCKETS OF SNOW COULD BECOME
PROBABLE LATE IN THE PERIOD DOWN IN THE LOWLANDS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOWER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THE PASSAGE
OF THE WARM FRONT WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 40S, WHICH WILL KEEP THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP-TYPE AS
MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY.
WITH THIS ISSUANCE, IT WAS ELECTED UPON BY COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WINTER HEADLINES
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY'S EVENT AND ALLOW FOR TIME TO SEE MODEL
EVOLUTION IN REGARDS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WILL HOIST UP A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOW ALONG OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE WE DON'T
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING ICE WITH THE ONSET OF THIS
DISTURBANCE, THERE COULD BE A FEW ICY PATCHES THAT MAY ATTEMPT
TO FORM DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITHIN POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 132 PM THURSDAY...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A CHILLY FEEL IN THE
AIR THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY, CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FOR
SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 133 PM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE ON MONDAY, BRINGING QUIET
WEATHER AREAWIDE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
ON TUESDAY, CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS WOULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST OF
THE LOWLANDS, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START,
BUT EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS WARM AIR SPILLS
NORTHWARD.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE DRAPED OVER OUR AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY
MILD WITH MODELS DEPICTING A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ANY
PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
MODELS ARE STILL VERY INCONSISTENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. AT THIS MOMENT, WE WILL GO WITH JUST A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT WE BELIEVE THE MILD TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY RISING INTO LOW END VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES OOZE INTO THE ARE DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY ENCASE THE FLIGHT
SPACE WITHIN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLIDE IN
ALONG A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. DURING WHICH TIME,
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MAY REACH
DOWN INTO THE IFR BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
CALM WINDS TODAY WILL TRIUMPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY PRECEDING
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LIFTING CEILINGS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK
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