351
FXUS61 KRLX 201833
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
QUICK HITTING CLIPPER WITH RAIN/SNOW THIS EVENING, TRANSITIONING
TO UPSLOPE SNOW SATURDAY. TURNING DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING, WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY TAKING
HOLD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY, BUT
MAY TAPER OFF TO A -DZ LATER IN THE EVENING AS MOISTURE DEPTH
CONTINUES TO ERODE. PERIODS OF FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT, OWING TO CAA AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, RELAXING
LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE IN.
EXPECTING LITTLE RISE IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SNOW TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO HALF AN
INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON ITS WAY OUT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AMOUNT OF UP TO HALF AN INCH ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS OF 25-35MPH INTO THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO GIVE THE AREA A BREAK
BUT THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAILING OFF TOWARD THE
EAST BY MONDAY.
UPON EXITING, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C AT 850MB.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MUCH LOWER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREACH THE FREEZING MARK WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MUCH LOWER THAN SEASONABLE AS WELL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...
BY TUESDAY, FLEETING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM TO RACE PAST THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE THIS
FEATURE LOSES ITS ENERGY FAIRLY QUICKLY AND MAY NOT EVEN PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
WE ALSO HAVE A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH COURTESY OF A SYSTEM OUT WEST. THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALONG WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HOWEVER THEY ARE BOTH VERY LOW CHANCES.
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY ALTHOUGH CENTRAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE CONFIDENT ON THIS FEATURE WITH ONLY PROVIDING LOW
END CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE SLOWLY BY MONDAY AND THEN A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND COMMENCES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD
WHERE BY TUESDAY MOSTLY RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THEN BY THURSDAY AN ALL RAIN REGIME IS LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 122 PM FRIDAY...
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW AREA WIDE, PARTICULARLY
AFTER 22Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION,
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TAKING HOLD PARTICULARLY AFTER
21Z, AND WIDESPREAD IFR TAKING HOLD AFTER 00Z. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AFTER 06Z, BUT LINGER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER 12Z, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF IFR WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND IN THE 20 TO LOWER 30S MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H M M H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
WVZ024>026-033-034-515-517-519.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ516-518-
520>523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...SL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page