272
FXUS61 KRLX 210622
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
QUICK HITTING CLIPPER WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY. DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES BY DAWN TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...
ADJUSTED QPF/SNOWFALL FORECAST UP A BIT THIS MORNING WITH REMAINING
SNOW SHOWERS, BUT EXISTING HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
COVER.
AS OF 1050 PM FRIDAY...
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A TOUCH LOWER THAN FORECAST. THE SNOW
SHOWERS WERE MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, BUT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS OF WV, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GIVEN MID LEVEL
DRYING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...
FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK, WITH SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS OF WV,
INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON AREA. A WEST TO EAST AXIS OF WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WV UNTIL
DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THERE FILLS COMPLETELY TONIGHT,
MAKING FOR A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW THERE. 1.1 INCHES OF
SNOW HAS FALLEN NEAR FLAT TOP/GHENT, WV, SOUTH OF BECKLEY, SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH JUST A COATING AT BECKLEY.
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING, WITH
AN UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY, BUT MAY TAPER OFF TO A
-DZ LATER IN THE EVENING AS MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO ERODE.
PERIODS OF FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, OWING TO CAA
AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE IN. EXPECTING LITTLE
RISE IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SNOW TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO HALF AN
INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ONE LAST DAY BEFORE ENTERING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO
GET US ABOVE SEASONABLE BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING TO WARM UP INTO
THE NEXT PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
STARTING MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TOWARD THE EAST
BUT WILL STILL HAVE A PRESENCE AROUND THE AREA. A CLIPPER
QUICKLY SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, THE REGION BECOMES ACTIVE, HOWEVER
WE GET THE HELP OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO HELP US DODGE A BULLET OR TWO ALONG
THE WAY. CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE TABLE FOR THE LOWLANDS AS
AN ALL RAIN REGIME AND FOR THE MOUNTAINS CHANCES WILL REMAIN
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS INCREASINGLY BECOME CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE THIS
MORNING WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CEILINGS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. BY 12Z LARGELY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT BKW AND
PERHAPS EKN WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 8-10KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITY IMPACTS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOW
SHOWERS MAY BE WORSE THAN ADVERTISING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT
THIS MORNING COULD VARY BY A COUPLE HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 12/21/24
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ024>026-033-034-515-517-519.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ516-518-520>523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP/SL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JP
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