238
FXUS61 KRLX 210725
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS FADE TO FLURRIES TODAY. DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES BY DAWN
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY THIS MORNING YIELDING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF SNOW SHOWERS AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS ALLOWING FOR VERY
COLD (NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS) AIR TO OOZE OVER LAKE HURON WHERE
SOME NORTHERLY FETCH STILL EXISTS. THIS MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD
BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE YIELDING A SOMEWHAT
NARROW PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OR JUST EAST OF OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXISTING HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA THIS MORNING, BUT WILL KEEP IT ALL GOING AT LEAST UNTIL THE SUN
COMES UP FOR ANY SLICK SPOTS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER PATCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SKIES CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING
AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, SHOULD RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY INTO
THE MID TEENS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ONE LAST DAY BEFORE ENTERING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO
GET US ABOVE SEASONABLE BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING TO WARM UP INTO
THE NEXT PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
STARTING MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TOWARD THE EAST
BUT WILL STILL HAVE A PRESENCE AROUND THE AREA. A CLIPPER
QUICKLY SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, THE REGION BECOMES ACTIVE, HOWEVER
WE GET THE HELP OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO HELP US DODGE A BULLET OR TWO ALONG
THE WAY. CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE TABLE FOR THE LOWLANDS AS
AN ALL RAIN REGIME AND FOR THE MOUNTAINS CHANCES WILL REMAIN
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS INCREASINGLY BECOME CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE THIS
MORNING WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CEILINGS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. BY 12Z LARGELY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT BKW AND
PERHAPS EKN WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 8-10KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITY IMPACTS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOW
SHOWERS MAY BE WORSE THAN ADVERTISING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT
THIS MORNING COULD VARY BY A COUPLE HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 12/21/24
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ024>026-033-034-515-517-519.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ516-518-520>523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JP
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