917
FXUS61 KRLX 211842
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS FADE TO FLURRIES TODAY. DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES BY DAWN
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, FORECAST WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
DRY OUT ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY
BUT COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH, AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD, OWING TO A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH TEENS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, MIN T
FORECAST IS TRICKY, AS IF MORE/LESS CLEARING OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL MORE/LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD UNDER THE GUISE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE
PROPELS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINNING ON MONDAY IN ORDER
TO MAKE ROOM FOR THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SETTING UP FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL, WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS IN THE CWA BACK ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY PROGGED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE LOWLANDS AND THE 30S ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY CONGEALING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ONSET TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION AIMS TO OCCUR FIRST IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET MONDAY EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TRACKING INTO AND BANKING UP
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD A MOSTLY RAIN FORECAST FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE BOUNCING FROM A RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO AN ALL SNOW REGIME ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...
LOW END CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MARCH INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN TOO WARM IN REGARDS TO PROMOTING
SNOW FOR AREAS BELOW 3000FT AGL ELEVATIONS AND WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN ALL RAIN FORECAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE FORMING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TAKES AIM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AREAWIDE TO
MAINTAIN RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
OCCASIONAL -SNSH THROUGH 00Z, WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF -SN, MOST AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH REMAIN MVFR, BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. OTHERWISE,
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH 21Z, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN
THE TEENS TO 20S, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY AT KBKW MAY BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE TO VFR THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H M H L M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...SL
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