587
FXUS61 KRLX 220122
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
822 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
THE LAST OF THE MOUNTAIN FLURRIES FADE TONIGHT. DRY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, WITH A MILDER AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...
UPDATED TO LINGER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE MOUNTAINS A
LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT WHILE ACCOUNTING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...
THE LAST OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL FADE TONIGHT, AS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY FADE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS, AND
DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE LOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY.
LOWS IN THE 10S TONIGHT REMAIN ON TRACK, WITH SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WV, WHERE
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE
OF ZERO.
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, FORECAST WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
DRY OUT ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. DRY
BUT COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH, AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD, OWING TO A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WITH TEENS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, MIN T
FORECAST IS TRICKY, AS IF MORE/LESS CLEARING OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL MORE/LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD UNDER THE GUISE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE
PROPELS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINNING ON MONDAY IN ORDER
TO MAKE ROOM FOR THE NEXT DISTURBANCE SETTING UP FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL, WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS IN THE CWA BACK ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY PROGGED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE LOWLANDS AND THE 30S ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY CONGEALING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ONSET TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION AIMS TO OCCUR FIRST IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AROUND SUNSET MONDAY EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TRACKING INTO AND BANKING UP
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD A MOSTLY RAIN FORECAST FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE BOUNCING FROM A RAIN/SNOW
MIX TO AN ALL SNOW REGIME ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...
LOW END CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MARCH INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN TOO WARM IN REGARDS TO PROMOTING
SNOW FOR AREAS BELOW 3000FT AGL ELEVATIONS AND WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN ALL RAIN FORECAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE FORMING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
TAKES AIM FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AREAWIDE TO
MAINTAIN RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...
THE LAST OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL FADE TONIGHT, AS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL GRADUALLY FADE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS, AND
DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE LOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME, MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN ANY SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY. THESE MVFR
CEILINGS COULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT
EKN. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING SUNDAY WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND BE CALM TO
LIGHT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER MAY OR MAY NOT
CAUSE CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. TIMING AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 12/22/24
UTC 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
EST 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...TRM
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