714
FXUS61 KRLX 150740
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MORE
DISTURBANCES PLAGUE THE AREA. BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 605 PM TUESDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HAVE FRESHENED
UP POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT PROGRESSION OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AS OF 1244 PM TUESDAY...
A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING, PROVIDING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY FROM I-64 NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC COLD AIR. THE ISSUE WITH THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER TODAY IS THE TIMING, WHICH
HAPPENS TO BE RIGHT AROUND THE EVENING COMMUTE. GUSTY WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW COULD
CREATE HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. BE SURE
TO TAKE IT SLOW IF DRIVING THROUGH A SNOW SHOWER LATER TODAY.
NOT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, ONLY UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER CAN PROVIDE
A QUICK COATING, WHICH CAN BE SLICK TO DRIVE AND WALK ON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS CONTINUE AS
PLANNED. EXPECT VERY COLD AIR OVERNIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH NEAR ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. BE SURE TO COVER ALL EXPOSED SKIN TO AVOID
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROST BITE.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A RATHER QUIET DAY AS CLOUDS MIX WITH SOME
SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A QUICK FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES, BUT THE
CHANCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE IT FROM THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING BACK OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY SINCE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH'S IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20'S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ERUPTING INTO THE LOW 40'S
FOR PORTIONS OF LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KY/WV/OH TRI-STATE
AREA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 20'S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE RATHER COLD, WITH
LOW'S IN THE LOW TO MID 20'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LOW TO MID
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE
LOWLANDS REACHING UPPER 20'S/LOW 30'S AND THE MOUNTAINS REACHING
HIGH TEENS/LOW 20'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
A MUCH MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME SATURDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS TO BE
RAIN GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY INTO THE 40'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS GIVEN HOW BRIEF WE WILL HAVE BEEN BELOW
FREEZING PRIOR TO THE EVENT, BUT NONE THE LESS THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO RAIN BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE NEW WEEK MONDAY AND ONWARD WITH H5 DROPPING TO THE 516-522
OR SO RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT
THE PEAK OF THE INTRUSION. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE AREA
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE HIGH TEENS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE COLDEST OF THE TWO DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS (WITH PORTIONS OF SE OH LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS) AND SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR WIND CHILL
HEADLINES IN THE FUTURE SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CWA DOES MAINTAIN SOME MVFR CLOUD
DECKS AND SNOW SHOWERS. INDEED, A BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWER IS
DELIVERING LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS TO EKN AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME,
AND THEY MAY WELL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. CKB HAS SOME MVFR CLOUDS, BUT
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE BREAKING UP TO A MORE SCATTERED DECK
SOON.
OUR SOUTHERN SITES SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE
TAF PERIOD. CKB AND EKN ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
TONIGHT, BUT THEY AND PKB ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO MVFR
AS SOME FL025 CLOUDS SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY GUSTY WINDS
HAVE CALMED DOWN FOR MOST PART EXCEPT AT BKW UP ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER, EVEN THERE WINDS SHOULD BECOME LESS GUSTY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT, WITH GENTLE BREEZES THEN
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT EKN A FEW HOURS
LONGER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 01/15/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ516-
518-520-522-524-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-
526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JLB/JMC
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...FK
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