979
FXUS61 KRLX 151502
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1002 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MORE
DISTURBANCES PLAGUE THE AREA. BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AROUND THE AREA THIS
MORNING TO BEST REFLECT CURRENT LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. WIND CHILLS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS HAVE RISEN ABOVE
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS ANTICIPATED, ALLOWING THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES REMAIN VERY COLD
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE TIME OF WRITING,
SO WILL ALLOW THE EXTREME COLD WARNING TO CARRY ON UNTIL WIND
CHILLS RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BUT THERE IS LIKELY STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING IN
AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS, AND THAT MAY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE. INDEED, WEBCAMS SHOW IT IS STILL SNOWING AND BLOWING UP
AT SNOWSHOE, SO IT IS SAFE TO ASSUME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, EVINCED
BY STILL HAVING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW REPORTED ON THE ELKINS
ASOS, BUT THAT SHOULD WIND DOWN SOONER THAN LATER.
IT'S ALSO QUITE COLD, WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM AROUND
ZERO ON THE HIGHEST NORTHERN RIDGES TO MID-SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-
TEENS FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR ALMOST ALL LOWER ELEVATIONS,
EXCEPTING PERHAPS OUR SOUTHERN MOST FEW COUNTIES. WITH WINDS
CONTINUING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WE MAINTAIN THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING FOR OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SURROUNDING AREAS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DOWN TO
EASTERN RALEIGH. TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN, WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO MID-TEENS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER, BUT LIKELY STILL BREEZY ENOUGH TO PUSH WIND CHILLS
BELOW THE -10F THRESHOLD IN OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, SO ANOTHER
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ZONES.
LOOKING FORWARD, WE SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FOR MOST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS MOST OF
THE PERIOD, BUT SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. INITIALLY SUNNY
SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL CLOUD OVER LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA. INDEED, SOME MODELS HINT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS - FOR NOW, WE
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST HUGGING THE BORDER WITH PBZ, BUT
DID INCLUDE MENTION OF FLURRIES FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH JUST IN
CASE.
JUST AS THAT WEAK WAVELET MOVES OUT, THE NEXT BIGGER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS LOOK TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY, BUT SNOW LIKELY WILL
NOT START TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATE NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY SINCE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD INTO THE BARBOUR/UPSHUR/WEBSTER/NICHOLAS
COUNTIES AREA, WHERE TOTALS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL LIKELY REACH AT LEAST NEAR CRITERIA. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12Z THURSDAY UNTIL 12Z
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH'S IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20'S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ERUPTING INTO THE LOW 40'S
FOR PORTIONS OF LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KY/WV/OH TRI-STATE
AREA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 20'S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE RATHER COLD, WITH
LOW'S IN THE LOW TO MID 20'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LOW TO MID
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE
LOWLANDS REACHING UPPER 20'S/LOW 30'S AND THE MOUNTAINS REACHING
HIGH TEENS/LOW 20'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
A MUCH MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME SATURDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS TO BE
RAIN GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY INTO THE 40'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS GIVEN HOW BRIEF WE WILL HAVE BEEN BELOW
FREEZING PRIOR TO THE EVENT, BUT NONE THE LESS THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO RAIN BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE NEW WEEK MONDAY AND ONWARD WITH H5 DROPPING TO THE 516-522
OR SO RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT
THE PEAK OF THE INTRUSION. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE AREA
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE HIGH TEENS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE COLDEST OF THE TWO DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS (WITH PORTIONS OF SE OH LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS) AND SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR WIND CHILL
HEADLINES IN THE FUTURE SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 640 AM WEDNESDAY...
CLOUDS LINGER ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH A FEW STUBBORN
SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE INTERMITTENTLY IMPACTING EKN AND BKW, BUT
THAT SHOULD CLEAR THIS MORNING. OUR SOUTHERN SITES SHOULD BE
VFR THROUGH PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE EXPECTED MVFR CEILINGS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE STILL SHOW SOME FL025 CLOUDS FOR CKB, AND
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE THEM OUT FOR PKB AND EKN. SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THE LOWER CLOUDS AS THEY
SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA. MAINLY CALM WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GENTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN MAY SHIFT MORE S'LY TO SW'LY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY MATERIALIZE OVER
THE NORTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M L H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANY
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ039-040-519>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-
526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/FK
NEAR TERM...MEK/FK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...FK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page