711
FXUS61 KRLX 151915
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROMOTES SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE
WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* COLD WIND CHILLS RULE THE ROOST OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.
* A DISTURBANCE PROMOTES SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY.
* HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS OF WV, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS.
QUIET WEATHER, COURTESY OF TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE, PREVAILS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
YIELD SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND COLD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW/MID TEENS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHILE PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS, NEARING BELOW ZERO, WILL RULE THE ROOST FOR THE
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
ADVISORY/WARNING WIND CHILL CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON, WE RETURN
TO READINGS OF MINUS 10 DEGREES FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES
OF NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES.
THEREFORE, A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS HOISTED TO REPRESENT
THAT TIMEFRAME STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS IN EARNEST AROUND DAWN THURSDAY
MORNING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. CLOUDS WILL FIRST MASK THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS EASTWARD, THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME SNUG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THURSDAY
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
OBSERVE SOME LIGHT FLAKES WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, BUT THE
MORE APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
NEW FOR THIS AFTERNOON: THE WINTER STORM WATCH INHERITED FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CREW WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8
INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER RIDGETOPS, IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ENFORCED BY THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO YIELD AN UPTICK IN SURFACE WINDS, REACHING
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR FOR COUNTIES IN THE WARNING.
IN ADDITION, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING A
SIMILAR TIMEFRAME FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1
TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, A LIGHT DUSTING TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TRIUMPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AND INTO THE START OF THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY SINCE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS WESTWARD INTO THE BARBOUR/UPSHUR/WEBSTER/NICHOLAS
COUNTIES AREA, WHERE TOTALS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT WILL LIKELY REACH AT LEAST NEAR CRITERIA. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12Z THURSDAY UNTIL 12Z
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE
DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH'S IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20'S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ERUPTING INTO THE LOW 40'S
FOR PORTIONS OF LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KY/WV/OH TRI-STATE
AREA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 20'S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE RATHER COLD, WITH
LOW'S IN THE LOW TO MID 20'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LOW TO MID
TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE
LOWLANDS REACHING UPPER 20'S/LOW 30'S AND THE MOUNTAINS REACHING
HIGH TEENS/LOW 20'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
A MUCH MORE POTENT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME SATURDAY PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING MOST OF THIS TO BE
RAIN GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY INTO THE 40'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS GIVEN HOW BRIEF WE WILL HAVE BEEN BELOW
FREEZING PRIOR TO THE EVENT, BUT NONE THE LESS THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO RAIN BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS INTO MONDAY NIGHT UNDER COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE NEW WEEK MONDAY AND ONWARD WITH H5 DROPPING TO THE 516-522
OR SO RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AT
THE PEAK OF THE INTRUSION. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MOST OF THE AREA
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE HIGH TEENS EACH DAY. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE COLDEST OF THE TWO DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS (WITH PORTIONS OF SE OH LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS) AND SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR WIND CHILL
HEADLINES IN THE FUTURE SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 110 PM WEDNESDAY...
POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THEM. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THE WEATHER TURNS ACTIVE ONCE MORE THURSDAY MORNING AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE AREA WILL FIRST BECOME
BLANKETED BY LOWERING CEILINGS IN THE MORNING, QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY SNOW SHOWERS AND RESULTANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY CALM THIS EVENING, AN UPTICK IN WINDS
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE DISTURBANCE ENCROACHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A POCKET OF LLWS IN SOME SPOTS DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS, GRADUALLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND
RESULTING IN BREEZY TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
ANY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ010-011-018>020-027>032-517-518.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
WVZ039-040-519>523-525-526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/FK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MEK
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