695
FXUS61 KRLX 152336
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROMOTES SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE
WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* COLD WIND CHILLS RULE THE ROOST OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.
* A DISTURBANCE PROMOTES SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY.
* HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS OF WV, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS.
QUIET WEATHER, COURTESY OF TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE, PREVAILS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
YIELD SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND COLD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW/MID TEENS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHILE PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS, NEARING BELOW ZERO, WILL RULE THE ROOST FOR THE
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
ADVISORY/WARNING WIND CHILL CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON, WE RETURN
TO READINGS OF MINUS 10 DEGREES FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES
OF NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES.
THEREFORE, A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS HOISTED TO REPRESENT
THAT TIMEFRAME STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS IN EARNEST AROUND DAWN THURSDAY
MORNING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. CLOUDS WILL FIRST MASK THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS EASTWARD, THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME SNUG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THURSDAY
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
OBSERVE SOME LIGHT FLAKES WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, BUT THE
MORE APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
NEW FOR THIS AFTERNOON: THE WINTER STORM WATCH INHERITED FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CREW WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8
INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER RIDGETOPS, IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ENFORCED BY THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO YIELD AN UPTICK IN SURFACE WINDS, REACHING
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR FOR COUNTIES IN THE WARNING.
IN ADDITION, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING A
SIMILAR TIMEFRAME FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1
TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, A LIGHT DUSTING TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TRIUMPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AND INTO THE START OF THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 217 PM WEDNESDAY...
SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE PRIOR DISCUSSION. THEN, THE REST OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILDER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
40 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS THAT SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES, GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FUNNELING INTO OUR
DIRECTION WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
OUR REGION WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR, PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS MOST OF THE TIME. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MOST OF SATURDAY, AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY PROJECTING ANYWHERE FROM 0.20-0.40 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THIS COULD
CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES IN SPOTS WITH OUR MELTING SNOWPACK. WE WILL
WATCH THIS CLOSELY. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 217 PM WEDNESDAY...
ONCE AGAIN, ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES, ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THEREFORE, SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. EARLY INDICATIONS FAVOR A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH GENERALLY
LITTLE TO NO NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE PROJECTING LOWS MONDAY MORNING NEAR ZERO
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND BELOW ZERO IN MANY OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS FOR MONDAY,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EVEN COLDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY SPOTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OH DROPPING BELOW ZERO. WITH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MANY FOLKS OUT OF THE OFFICE ON MONDAY, TAKE
EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO KEEP PIPES FROM FREEZING OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD, LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT THEY SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES COURTESY OF AN EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INVADE THE SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SPREADING
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST AREAWIDE STARTING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD ARRIVE TO PKB AND CKB AROUND 12-14Z,
DETERIORATING TO IFR/LIFR ONCE SNOWFALL BECOMES MORE STEADY AND
HEAVY AT TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST TO
AFFECT MOST TERMINALS BY NOON. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL BECOME
MVFR AT HTS AND CRW BY 14Z, SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY LOWER CEILINGS
EVEN FURTHER TO IFR BY 16Z AND BEYOND, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE SNOW ACTIVITY
REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR ARE EXPECTED AT CKB, EKN AND BKW AFTER
16Z, CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, OR EVEN CALM TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH BY 10Z, AND THEN GUSTY UP TO 23 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 35 KNOTS WINDS AT 2000 FEET THURSDAY
MORNING (AROUND 10Z), MAINLY ACROSS THE TRI- STATE (OH/KY/WV)
AREA, AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. KEPT MENTIONING OF LLWS
AT MOST SITES UNTIL MIXING TAKES PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON LEADING
TO GUSTY WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF SNOWFALL AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ010-011-018>020-027>032-517-518.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
WVZ039-040-519>523-525-526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ
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