556  
FXUS61 KRLX 160619  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
119 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROMOTES SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING. BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE  
WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOUD DECK  
ABOUT 9000 FEET MOVING FASTER INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY AT THIS  
TIME. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY OVER  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO BETTER MATCH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. REST OF  
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
SKIES CLEARED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. COMBINED WITH  
COLD AIR IN PLACE AND SNOW COVER EFFECTS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES  
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY MIDNIGHT.  
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A NON-NOCTURNAL TREND, WHEN TEMPERATURES  
WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM MIDNIGHT  
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, EXPECT UPPER LEVEL  
CLOUDS TO INVADE FROM WEST TO EAST, AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS  
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER  
REPRESENT CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* COLD WIND CHILLS RULE THE ROOST OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.  
 
* A DISTURBANCE PROMOTES SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING THURSDAY  
MORNING INTO FRIDAY.  
 
* HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST  
MOUNTAINS OF WV, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS.  
 
QUIET WEATHER, COURTESY OF TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE, PREVAILS  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR  
THURSDAY. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL  
YIELD SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND COLD  
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES  
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW/MID TEENS WILL BE  
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHILE PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE  
DIGIT READINGS, NEARING BELOW ZERO, WILL RULE THE ROOST FOR THE  
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM  
ADVISORY/WARNING WIND CHILL CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON, WE RETURN  
TO READINGS OF MINUS 10 DEGREES FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES  
OF NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  
THEREFORE, A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS HOISTED TO REPRESENT  
THAT TIMEFRAME STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS IN EARNEST AROUND DAWN THURSDAY  
MORNING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION. CLOUDS WILL FIRST MASK THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST, THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE SYSTEM  
TRACKS EASTWARD, THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL BECOME SNUG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THURSDAY  
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL  
OBSERVE SOME LIGHT FLAKES WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, BUT THE  
MORE APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO PARTS OF  
THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE  
APPALACHIANS.  
 
NEW FOR THIS AFTERNOON: THE WINTER STORM WATCH INHERITED FROM  
THE OVERNIGHT CREW WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR  
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8  
INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR THE  
HIGHER RIDGETOPS, IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ENFORCED BY THIS  
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO YIELD AN UPTICK IN SURFACE WINDS, REACHING  
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR FOR COUNTIES IN THE WARNING.  
IN ADDITION, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING A  
SIMILAR TIMEFRAME FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1  
TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, A LIGHT DUSTING TO AROUND AN  
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR  
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING LATE  
THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TRIUMPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AND INTO THE START OF THE SHORT TERM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 217 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE PRIOR DISCUSSION. THEN, THE REST OF  
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILDER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE  
40 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL  
SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.  
 
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE  
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS THAT SOUTHERN STREAM  
SYSTEM APPROACHES, GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FUNNELING INTO OUR  
DIRECTION WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE  
OUR REGION WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR, PRECIPITATION WILL  
GENERALLY BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET  
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS MOST OF THE TIME. RAIN SHOWERS  
WILL CONTINUE MOST OF SATURDAY, AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE.  
MODELS ARE GENERALLY PROJECTING ANYWHERE FROM 0.20-0.40 INCHES  
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THIS COULD  
CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES IN SPOTS WITH OUR MELTING SNOWPACK. WE WILL  
WATCH THIS CLOSELY. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 217 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
ONCE AGAIN, ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE  
OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE FROM  
THE GREAT LAKES, ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THEREFORE, SNOW SHOWERS  
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF  
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO  
LOWER 30S. EARLY INDICATIONS FAVOR A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL  
ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH GENERALLY  
LITTLE TO NO NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  
 
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE PROJECTING LOWS MONDAY MORNING NEAR ZERO  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND BELOW ZERO IN MANY OF THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS FOR MONDAY,  
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EVEN COLDER MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY SPOTS  
ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OH DROPPING BELOW ZERO. WITH THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MANY FOLKS OUT OF THE OFFICE ON MONDAY, TAKE  
EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO KEEP PIPES FROM FREEZING OVER THE WEEKEND. IN  
ADDITION TO THE COLD, LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE  
MONDAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT THEY SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS  
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1250 AM THURSDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE CURRENTLY, AS JUST A MID-LEVEL DECK OF  
CLOUDS, MAINLY FL070-FL090, IS MOVING OVER IN ADVANCE OF THE  
INCOMING SNOW SYSTEM. WHILE THERE ARE RETURNS ON RADAR OVER SE  
OHIO, THAT IS ALL ELEVATED AND NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND.  
INDEED, THE NEAREST REPORTS OF SNOW ARE STILL BACK OVER NORTHERN  
INDIANA.  
 
HOWEVER, SNOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS OHIO  
OVERNIGHT, AND MAY REACH PKB OR EVEN CKB AROUND OR JUST BEFORE  
12Z. ONCE SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA, IT LIKELY SPREADS FAIRLY  
QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA, THOUGH SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF  
THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST. GIVEN  
THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SW EXTENT OF THE STEADIER SNOW, HTS WAS  
ONLY GIVEN A PROB30 GROUP IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON FOR NOW. CRW WAS GIVEN A BROADER PERIOD OF PROB30 MVFR  
CONDITIONS, AND A PERIOD OF MVFR PREVAILING WITH A PROB30 IFR,  
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH SITES.  
 
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN TAF SITES ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE  
SNOW, AND WERE GIVEN IFR TO LIFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS, AND SOME  
VLIFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF ANYONE GETS HIT BY PERIODS OF  
HEAVY SNOW. SNOW CHANCES RAMP DOWN FOR THE EASTERN SITES BY OR  
BEFORE 00Z, BUT CONTINUE AFTER 00Z FOR CKB, BKW, AND ESPECIALLY  
EKN.  
 
DID PUT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS FOR SOME SPOTS AROUND 12Z, AS  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE  
2000FT AGL. HOWEVER, AS WINDS PICK UP AFTER 12Z, THAT WILL BRING  
ANY LLWS BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR TAF INCLUSION.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF SNOWFALL AND ASSOCIATED  
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. LLWS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE,  
OR COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE THU 01/16/25  
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L H M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M  
 
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...  
AT LEAST AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS  
THE AREA, AND IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INDEPENDENT OF SNOW.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST  
FRIDAY FOR WVZ010-011-018>020-027>032-517-518.  
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY  
FOR WVZ039-040-519>523-525-526.  
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
WVZ523-526.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC  
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ  
SHORT TERM...JMC  
LONG TERM...JMC  
AVIATION...FK  
 
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