819
FXUS61 KRLX 160803
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PROMOTES SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE
WEEKEND. MUCH COLDER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOUD DECK
ABOUT 9000 FEET MOVING FASTER INTO THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY AT THIS
TIME. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO BETTER MATCH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...
SKIES CLEARED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. COMBINED WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE AND SNOW COVER EFFECTS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A NON-NOCTURNAL TREND, WHEN TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM MIDNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, EXPECT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TO INVADE FROM WEST TO EAST, AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER
REPRESENT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* COLD WIND CHILLS RULE THE ROOST OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.
* A DISTURBANCE PROMOTES SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY.
* HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS OF WV, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS.
QUIET WEATHER, COURTESY OF TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE, PREVAILS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY. PRECEDING THIS DISTURBANCE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
YIELD SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND COLD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW/MID TEENS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHILE PREDOMINANTLY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS, NEARING BELOW ZERO, WILL RULE THE ROOST FOR THE
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
ADVISORY/WARNING WIND CHILL CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON, WE RETURN
TO READINGS OF MINUS 10 DEGREES FOR OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES
OF NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTIES.
THEREFORE, A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS HOISTED TO REPRESENT
THAT TIMEFRAME STARTING LATER THIS EVENING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS IN EARNEST AROUND DAWN THURSDAY
MORNING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. CLOUDS WILL FIRST MASK THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS EASTWARD, THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME SNUG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THURSDAY
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
OBSERVE SOME LIGHT FLAKES WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, BUT THE
MORE APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
NEW FOR THIS AFTERNOON: THE WINTER STORM WATCH INHERITED FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CREW WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8
INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER RIDGETOPS, IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ENFORCED BY THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO YIELD AN UPTICK IN SURFACE WINDS, REACHING
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR FOR COUNTIES IN THE WARNING.
IN ADDITION, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING A
SIMILAR TIMEFRAME FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 1
TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA, A LIGHT DUSTING TO AROUND AN
INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TRIUMPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AND INTO THE START OF THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS, MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGH'S IN
THE UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND MID 20'S TO LOW
30'S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MID LEVEL S/W THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN AND
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND HIGH
20'S TO MID 30'S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO PRIMARILY BE RAIN BUT SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WV/SE OH AND THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS, WITH SNOW/RAIN MIX LIKELY
PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE HIGHEST
PEAKS MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW, OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
ACCUMULATION TO BE MINIMAL IF ANY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AT THIS TIME
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE, WITH PERHAPS A FEW INCHES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS GIVEN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FROM NORTHWEST FLOW. NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS BUT IT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE EVENT GROWS NEAR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF WITH EVERYWHERE BEING AT
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE BIG ATTRACTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE
POTENT ARCTIC HIGH EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO STRUGGLE TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TEENS WHILE AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY NOT
REACH ZERO MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS,
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE ZERO ON
TUESDAY AS WELL.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES LIKE THESE
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INFRASTRUCTURE, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN WATER PIPES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BITTERLY COLD,
WITH MONDAY MORNING LIKELY BEING THE MOST WIDESPREAD COLD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOST LOCATIONS SEEING WIND CHILLS OF AT LEAST FIVE
BELOW. MUCH COLDER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
OHIO AND NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN WV AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 30 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE COLDEST WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL MEET COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
LEAST EACH MORNING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WV/SE OHIO/NE WV MOUNTAINS LIKELY NEARING EXTREME COLD
CRITERIA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY MEETING
THIS CRITERIA EACH MORNING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF WIND CHILLS, AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL INTO AT LEAST THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVES AND
EVEN NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 20'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING COLD WITH SINGLE DIGIT/LOW TEEN HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SOME BY LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE CURRENTLY, AS JUST A MID-LEVEL DECK OF
CLOUDS, MAINLY FL070-FL090, IS MOVING OVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
INCOMING SNOW SYSTEM. WHILE THERE ARE RETURNS ON RADAR OVER SE
OHIO, THAT IS ALL ELEVATED AND NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND.
INDEED, THE NEAREST REPORTS OF SNOW ARE STILL BACK OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA.
HOWEVER, SNOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS OHIO
OVERNIGHT, AND MAY REACH PKB OR EVEN CKB AROUND OR JUST BEFORE
12Z. ONCE SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA, IT LIKELY SPREADS FAIRLY
QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA, THOUGH SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA MAY ONLY SEE INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SW EXTENT OF THE STEADIER SNOW, HTS WAS
ONLY GIVEN A PROB30 GROUP IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NOW. CRW WAS GIVEN A BROADER PERIOD OF PROB30 MVFR
CONDITIONS, AND A PERIOD OF MVFR PREVAILING WITH A PROB30 IFR,
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR BOTH SITES.
NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN TAF SITES ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE
SNOW, AND WERE GIVEN IFR TO LIFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS, AND SOME
VLIFR IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF ANYONE GETS HIT BY PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW. SNOW CHANCES RAMP DOWN FOR THE EASTERN SITES BY OR
BEFORE 00Z, BUT CONTINUE AFTER 00Z FOR CKB, BKW, AND ESPECIALLY
EKN.
DID PUT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS FOR SOME SPOTS AROUND 12Z, AS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE
2000FT AGL. HOWEVER, AS WINDS PICK UP AFTER 12Z, THAT WILL BRING
ANY LLWS BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR TAF INCLUSION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF SNOWFALL AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. LLWS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE,
OR COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 01/16/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
AT LEAST AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA, AND IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INDEPENDENT OF SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ010-011-018>020-027>032-517-518.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ039-040-519>523-525-526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...FK
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