325
FXUS61 KRLX 161203
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
703 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE WEEKEND.
MUCH COLDER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS.
* MODEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS,
AS WELL AS THE NORTH-CENTRAL WV LOWLANDS, WHILE SOUTHWESTERN
WV AND NORTHEAST KY MAY NOT SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL.
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVERHEAD EARLIER TONIGHT, ARRESTING THE
PLUNGING TEMPERATURES AND SENDING THEM SLOWLY UPWARDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS SW'LY WINDS DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING
HOURS, WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST MANY LOWLAND SITES TO OR ABOVE
FREEZING. SOME SITES MAY GET WARM ENOUGH TO PROMOTE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX, BUT THE WARMTH IS LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT MOST
SPOTS THAT GET ABOVE FREEZING WILL STILL SEE SNOW, ALBEIT SNOW
OF THE WETTER VARIETY.
THE OVERALL SNOW FORECAST HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, WITH A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 6-10" ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA, AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
RIDGES OF NW POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES. THE
ADVISORY AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A SOLID 2-6" OF SNOW, WITH
THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE EXPECTED IN THE ARES JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS, AND LOWER TOTALS FURTHER OUT INTO THE LOWLANDS.
HEADING WEST OF CHARLESTON, TOWARDS THE HUNTINGTON TRI-STATE
AREA, LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE SNOW MAY FALL FROM THIS EVENT, AS
THE BULK OF GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE BETTER MOISTURE BEING
FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WILL BE MAKING A FEW MINOR EXPANSIONS TO THE ADVISORY, LIKELY
INCLUDING EASTERN RALEIGH COUNTY, WHERE BOTH THE NATIONAL BLEND
AND THE HREF ARE PEGGING A BULLSEYE AROUND FLAT TOP, RIGHT ALONG
I-64. THAT ALONE IS ENOUGH TO BOOST THE SNOW FORECAST THERE
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND MUCH OF IT COULD FALL IN JUST A FEW
HOURS, POTENTIALLY AROUND EVENING COMMUTE TIME, WHICH WOULD BE
BAD NEWS ALONG THE INTERSTATE.
THE SW'LY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN RATHER GUSTY FROM MIDDAY
ONWARD AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 10-15MPH EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND GUSTS TO 25MPH
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHIFT W'LY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA, REMAINING GUSTY INTO THE EVENING.
WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEHIND THE
TROUGH.
SPEAKING OF GUSTY WINDS, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SNOW SQUALL
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE
AREA. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE PRIME DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN IN SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS, SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE CUTTING
OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS, MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGH'S IN
THE UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND MID 20'S TO LOW
30'S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MID LEVEL S/W THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN AND
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND HIGH
20'S TO MID 30'S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO PRIMARILY BE RAIN BUT SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WV/SE OH AND THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS, WITH SNOW/RAIN MIX LIKELY
PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE HIGHEST
PEAKS MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW, OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
ACCUMULATION TO BE MINIMAL IF ANY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AT THIS TIME
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE, WITH PERHAPS A FEW INCHES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS GIVEN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FROM NORTHWEST FLOW. NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS BUT IT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE EVENT GROWS NEAR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF WITH EVERYWHERE BEING AT
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE BIG ATTRACTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE
POTENT ARCTIC HIGH EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO STRUGGLE TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TEENS WHILE AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY NOT
REACH ZERO MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS,
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE ZERO ON
TUESDAY AS WELL.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES LIKE THESE
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INFRASTRUCTURE, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN WATER PIPES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BITTERLY COLD,
WITH MONDAY MORNING LIKELY BEING THE MOST WIDESPREAD COLD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOST LOCATIONS SEEING WIND CHILLS OF AT LEAST FIVE
BELOW. MUCH COLDER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
OHIO AND NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN WV AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 30 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE COLDEST WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL MEET COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
LEAST EACH MORNING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WV/SE OHIO/NE WV MOUNTAINS LIKELY NEARING EXTREME COLD
CRITERIA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY MEETING
THIS CRITERIA EACH MORNING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF WIND CHILLS, AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL INTO AT LEAST THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVES AND
EVEN NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 20'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING COLD WITH SINGLE DIGIT/LOW TEEN HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SOME BY LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO LOWER, WITH ALL SITES FORECAST TO HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS WELL AS
CEILINGS LOWERING INTO MVFR CATEGORIES. SNOW SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING ONWARD. WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW, AND POSSIBLY HIGHER SNOW RATES, WE DO PUT
PKB, CKB, AND EKN IN FOR PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR VSBY. MUCH OF
THE AREA IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE
MOUNTAINS. CRW IS BORDERLINE ON HITTING IFR CEILINGS, SO THEY
WERE NOT INCLUDED AS OF NOW, AND HTS IS LIKELY TO NOT GO BELOW
MVFR ON CEILINGS.
SW'LY WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY HEADING
TOWARDS MIDDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS FOR MOST TAF
SITES, BUT BKW AND OTHER HIGHER RIDGES WILL SEE GUSTS OF 25KTS
OR MORE AT TIMES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF SNOWFALL AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. LLWS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE,
OR COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M L H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M L M M M H H M H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
AT LEAST AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA, AND IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INDEPENDENT OF SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ009>011-
016>020-027>032-516>518.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ039-040-
519>523-525-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...FK
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