975
FXUS61 KRLX 161729
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1229 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE WEEKEND.
MUCH COLDER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1136 AM THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AS A DISTURBANCE/UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NE US
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES, WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
TAKE HOLD LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, AND LINGER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRIDAY. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY RAISE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
GENERALLY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO BE THE PRIMARY FORM
OF PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT A LOWERING OF SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PRECIPITATION COULD TAPER OFF AS A
DZ OR FZDZ EARLY FRIDAY AS WE LOSE MOISTURE DEPTH.
THERE ALSO STILL REMAINS THE RISK FOR SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE AREA,
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW, MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN CURRENT WSW COUNTIES, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION, AS EVENING COMMUTE TIME LOOKS FAVORABLE.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NICE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WV
MOUNTAINS AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ON FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS, MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGH'S IN
THE UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND MID 20'S TO LOW
30'S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MID LEVEL S/W THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN AND
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND HIGH
20'S TO MID 30'S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS TO PRIMARILY BE RAIN BUT SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WV/SE OH AND THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS, WITH SNOW/RAIN MIX LIKELY
PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE HIGHEST
PEAKS MAY REMAIN ALL SNOW, OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
ACCUMULATION TO BE MINIMAL IF ANY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AT THIS TIME
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE, WITH PERHAPS A FEW INCHES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS GIVEN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FROM NORTHWEST FLOW. NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS BUT IT WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE EVENT GROWS NEAR.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF WITH EVERYWHERE BEING AT
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE BIG ATTRACTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE
POTENT ARCTIC HIGH EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO STRUGGLE TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TEENS WHILE AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY NOT
REACH ZERO MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS,
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE ZERO ON
TUESDAY AS WELL.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES LIKE THESE
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INFRASTRUCTURE, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN WATER PIPES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILLS FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE BITTERLY COLD,
WITH MONDAY MORNING LIKELY BEING THE MOST WIDESPREAD COLD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND MOST LOCATIONS SEEING WIND CHILLS OF AT LEAST FIVE
BELOW. MUCH COLDER WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
OHIO AND NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN WV AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 30 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE COLDEST WIND
CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL MEET COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
LEAST EACH MORNING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WV/SE OHIO/NE WV MOUNTAINS LIKELY NEARING EXTREME COLD
CRITERIA AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY MEETING
THIS CRITERIA EACH MORNING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF WIND CHILLS, AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL INTO AT LEAST THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVES AND
EVEN NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 20'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING COLD WITH SINGLE DIGIT/LOW TEEN HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE SOME BY LATE IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM THURSDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MUCH OF SE OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WV ALREADY MVFR, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, GENERALLY
AFTER 22Z, EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE, WITH LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS PROVIDING BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND AT SITES SUCH AS KEKN.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND IN THE 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z, WHEN SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY
WILL BE NOTED.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY START TO IMPROVE AFTER 12Z, WITH AREAS
OF VFR GRADUALLY TAKING HOLD, ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY STILL
REMAIN MVFR PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF SNOWFALL AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. ONSET OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EST 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H L M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M H H H H L
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, AND IN SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ009>011-
016>020-027>032-516>518.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ039-040-
519>523-525-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...SL
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