868
FXUS61 KRLX 170204
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
904 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE WEEKEND.
MUCH COLDER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN BECOMING SHALLOWER AND LOOSING
SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ. THEREFORE, EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE MODERATE UPSLOPE SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
WV THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES UNTIL PERIODS OF SNOW
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WARMED UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE KANAWHA
METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER MATCH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WV AND NORTHEAST OH. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
AS OF 1136 AM THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AS A DISTURBANCE/UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NE US
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES, WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
TAKE HOLD LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, AND LINGER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRIDAY. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY RAISE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
GENERALLY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO BE THE PRIMARY FORM
OF PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT A LOWERING OF SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PRECIPITATION COULD TAPER OFF AS A
DZ OR FZDZ EARLY FRIDAY AS WE LOSE MOISTURE DEPTH.
THERE ALSO STILL REMAINS THE RISK FOR SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE AREA,
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW, MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN CURRENT WSW COUNTIES, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION, AS EVENING COMMUTE TIME LOOKS FAVORABLE.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NICE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
MOISTURE, GRADUALLY SATURATING THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. MORNING LOWS
WILL DICTATE ONSET PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO
FALL AS RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOVERING ABOVE FREEZING, WHILE OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA WILL OBSERVE A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. RAIN EVENTUALLY OVERTAKES THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, HOLDING ON BY
A THREAD TO RAIN/SNOW FOR OUR HIGHEST ELEVATION ZONES.
AS THE STORM STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A DROP
IN TEMPERATURES AND A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BEGINNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO. AT THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, RAIN
WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND UP ALONG THE
I-79 CORRIDOR, WHILE SUCCUMBING TO A COMBINATION OF RAIN/SNOW OR
ALL SNOW FOR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...
THE ONGOING TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL BE ONGOING DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY, TURNING TO AN ALL SNOW REGIME FOR
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SNOW WILL THEN RULE THE ROOST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. NEW WINTER HEADLINES COULD BE WARRANTED WITH THIS
UPCOMING EVENT, BUT THERE REMAINS TIME TO HASH OUT
ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING OUT THE RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION AND THE LONGEVITY OF THE WINTER PRECIPITATION.
SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK UNDER THE GUISE OF HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGING DOWN
FROM CANADA. ARCTIC COLD AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AND TRIUMPH OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. A LONG EXPOSURE OF THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MAY
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT INFRASTRUCTURE CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY TO
FROZEN PIPES THAT COULD ARISE. CENTRAL GUIDANCE PLACES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK
RANGING FROM -5 TO 5 DEGREES, AND -15 TO -5 DEGREES ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE. COUPLED WITH SURFACE FLOW DIPPING WIND CHILLS
DOWN EVEN FURTHER, TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE WILL FEEL EXCESSIVELY
COLD. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO,
WITH A STRONG GRAVITATION TOWARDS NEEDING COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
OUT WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 625 PM THURSDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST AS RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT MATERIALIZING AS
ANTICIPATED BY GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DETERIORATING
CEILINGS WIDESPREAD TO IFR STARTING THE TAF PERIOD. BELIEVE THIS
IS TOO PESSIMISTIC AMID DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS. IN
ADDITION, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS REVEALS COLUMN LOOSING MOISTURE AT
THE DGZ AT PKB EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWERS MIXED WITH DRIZZLE AT TIMES. THEREFORE, WILL START THE
PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT IFR UNDER
PERIODS OF SNOW AT CKB, PKB, AND EKN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL AFFECT BKW, PKB,
CKB AND EKN WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR UNDER SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE VFR
OR MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT, PERHAPS WITH FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AFFECTING CRW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HTS SHOULD STAY VFR
THROUGH 09Z, THEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS H850 WINDS
DECREASE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 20 KNOTS BY 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE TEENS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, AND 22 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY START TO IMPROVE AFTER 12Z, WITH AREAS
OF VFR GRADUALLY TAKING HOLD, ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS MAY STILL
REMAIN MVFR PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF SNOWFALL AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. ONSET OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M H M M H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, AND IN SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ009>011-
016>020-027>032-516>518.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ039-040-
519>523-525-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ
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