116
FXUS61 KRLX 170720
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
220 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDES SNOW
SUNDAY. ARCTIC AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1250 AM FRIDAY...
WENT AHEAD AND EXPIRED WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS
THESE AREAS AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THEY WILL RECEIVE ANY
MORE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE
FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN BECOMING SHALLOWER AND LOOSING
SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ. THEREFORE, EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE MODERATE UPSLOPE SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF
WV THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HEADLINES UNTIL PERIODS OF SNOW
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
AS OF 410 PM THURSDAY...
PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WARMED UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE KANAWHA
METRO AREA AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS INTO THE MID TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO BETTER MATCH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WV AND NORTHEAST OH. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
AS OF 1136 AM THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AS A DISTURBANCE/UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NE US
REGION. SNOW SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES, WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
TAKE HOLD LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, AND LINGER INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRIDAY. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED AS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY RAISE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
GENERALLY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO BE THE PRIMARY FORM
OF PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT A LOWERING OF SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PRECIPITATION COULD TAPER OFF AS A
DZ OR FZDZ EARLY FRIDAY AS WE LOSE MOISTURE DEPTH.
THERE ALSO STILL REMAINS THE RISK FOR SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE AREA,
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW, MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN CURRENT WSW COUNTIES, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION, AS EVENING COMMUTE TIME LOOKS FAVORABLE.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NICE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MILDER AIR
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH GENERALLY RAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE SOME SNOW IN THE MORNING, AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE SYSTEM.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
BEHIND THIS WAVE, ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR, FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD,
SO INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANYWHERE SKY
COVER WAS 30% OR HIGHER. WILL NEED COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW ZERO
DEGREES. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE POSSIBLE, POSSIBLY CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN DIVERGING FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD, INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SOME
NORTHERN TAF SITES AS WELL AS BKW DUE TO ONGOING STREAM OF LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS AIDED BY LAKE MOISTURE. CURRENTLY THERE ARE MVFR
CEILINGS AT BKW, CKB, PKB, AND EKN AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
PERSISTENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AND THIS IS EVIDENT ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AS WELL, SO IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
WE BREAK OUT OF THESE MVFR CEILINGS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED
EVEN FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
IFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY IFR VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR AT SOME OF
THE NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT IF ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN MATERIALIZE TO
PRODUCE ANY SNOW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
LOW PROBABILITY AT BEST AND GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL MATERIALIZE AT ALL. ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOMETIME AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR EKN
AND BKW, WHILE GUSTS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPORADIC WITH TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 01/17/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H M L M H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, AND IN SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-
526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...28/ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...28
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