652
FXUS61 KRLX 170958
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDES SNOW
SUNDAY. ARCTIC AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 455 AM FRIDAY...
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL REMAINING WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS AS SNOW
HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED TEMPERATURES
UP SOME TO REFLECT WARMER AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVERNIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, BUT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN FILTER INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE RATHER WARM IN COMPARISON TO
WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING, WITH HIGH'S WELL INTO THE 40'S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PEAK JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL INTO THE
LOW/MID 30'S.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PUSH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA AND WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE SOME OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S RANGE FOR
THE LOWLANDS EARLY ON IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO RISE BUT IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LOW 20'S FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN RAIN, BUT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX EARLY ON, WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT LEAST
FOR THE LOWLANDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MILDER AIR
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH GENERALLY RAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE SOME SNOW IN THE MORNING, AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE SYSTEM.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
BEHIND THIS WAVE, ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR, FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD,
SO INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANYWHERE SKY
COVER WAS 30% OR HIGHER. WILL NEED COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW ZERO
DEGREES. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE POSSIBLE, POSSIBLY CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN DIVERGING FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD, INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS SOME
NORTHERN TAF SITES AS WELL AS BKW DUE TO ONGOING STREAM OF LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS AIDED BY LAKE MOISTURE. CURRENTLY THERE ARE MVFR
CEILINGS AT BKW, CKB, PKB, AND EKN AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
PERSISTENT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AND THIS IS EVIDENT ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AS WELL, SO IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
WE BREAK OUT OF THESE MVFR CEILINGS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED
EVEN FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES.
IFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY IFR VISIBILITY COULD OCCUR AT SOME OF
THE NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT IF ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN MATERIALIZE TO
PRODUCE ANY SNOW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
LOW PROBABILITY AT BEST AND GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL MATERIALIZE AT ALL. ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOMETIME AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR EKN
AND BKW, WHILE GUSTS SHOULD BECOME MORE SPORADIC WITH TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 01/17/25
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, AND IN SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...28
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...28
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