628
FXUS61 KRLX 171104
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
604 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDES SNOW
SUNDAY. ARCTIC AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 455 AM FRIDAY...
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL REMAINING WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS AS SNOW
HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED TEMPERATURES
UP SOME TO REFLECT WARMER AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVERNIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, BUT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN FILTER INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE RATHER WARM IN COMPARISON TO
WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING, WITH HIGH'S WELL INTO THE 40'S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PEAK JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL INTO THE
LOW/MID 30'S.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PUSH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA AND WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE SOME OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S RANGE FOR
THE LOWLANDS EARLY ON IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO RISE BUT IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LOW 20'S FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN RAIN, BUT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX EARLY ON, WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT LEAST
FOR THE LOWLANDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MILDER AIR
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH GENERALLY RAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE SOME SNOW IN THE MORNING, AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE SYSTEM.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
BEHIND THIS WAVE, ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR, FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD,
SO INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANYWHERE SKY
COVER WAS 30% OR HIGHER. WILL NEED COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA BELOW ZERO
DEGREES. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE POSSIBLE, POSSIBLY CREATING CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH THE FORECAST WITH THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN DIVERGING FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT BKW, EKN, AND CKB. THESE
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT INTO VFR SOMETIME AFTER 12Z
THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT AND REMAIN VFR
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY'S
AS WELL IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE TAF
SITES VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET BUILDS OVER THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WIND DIRECTION CHANGE WITH HEIGHT IS SUBTLE
FROM SOUTHERLY AT THE SURFACE (10-15KTS LOWLANDS 20-25KTS MOUNTAINS)
TURNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ALOFT (40+KTS), BUT GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS IT IS SOMETHING WORTH MENTIONING HERE
AT THE VERY LEAST AND MAY WELL BE INCORPORATED IN THE NEXT TAF
UPDATE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, AND IN SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...28/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...28
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...28
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