461
FXUS61 KRLX 171733
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1233 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDES SNOW
SUNDAY. ARCTIC AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 903 AM FRIDAY...
TWEAKED CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO,
ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT 2
DEGREES ACROSS A LOT OF THE REGION WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
TODAY, AND BASED ON SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES NECESSARY.
AS OF 455 AM FRIDAY...
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL REMAINING WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS AS SNOW
HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED TEMPERATURES
UP SOME TO REFLECT WARMER AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...
MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM POISED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVERNIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, BUT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SOME
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN FILTER INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE RATHER WARM IN COMPARISON TO
WHAT WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING, WITH HIGH'S WELL INTO THE 40'S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SE OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PEAK JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS WELL INTO THE
LOW/MID 30'S.
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PUSH MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA AND WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE SOME OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S RANGE FOR
THE LOWLANDS EARLY ON IN THE NIGHT BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO RISE BUT IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE LOW 20'S FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN RAIN, BUT
SOME SNOW COULD MIX EARLY ON, WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT LEAST
FOR THE LOWLANDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MILDER AIR
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH GENERALLY RAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COULD SEE SOME SNOW IN THE MORNING, AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS MAY BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE SYSTEM.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO.
BEHIND THIS WAVE, ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND ARCTIC AIR, FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD,
SO INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANYWHERE SKY
COVER WAS 30% OR HIGHER. WILL NEED COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* EXTREMELY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
MINUS 10 TO MINUS 15 DEGREES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AS
LOW AS MINUS 25 TO MINUS 30 ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
* EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED DURING THIS LONG EXPOSURE
OF COLD WEATHER. NOW IS THE TIME TO PROTECT EXPOSED
INFRASTRUCTURE AND ENSURE PROPER PROTECTION AGAINST THE COLD
WHEN SPENDING ANY TIME OUTDOORS.
* PERIODIC CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
THE MAJOR HEADLINE WITH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BE THE
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL TRIUMPH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGING
DOWN FROM CANADA INFILTRATES THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, PROMOTING THE FIRST OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE ANTICIPATED
LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS DROP BELOW ZERO DEGREES
AREAWIDE. WHILE THIS AIRMASS IS IN PLACE, VERY LITTLE HELP FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE, YIELDING COLD WEATHER TO
PREVAIL WELL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BOTH DIURNALLY
AND NOCTURNALLY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THESE
EXCESSIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD CAUSE HARM TO RESIDENTS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
IT IS IMPERATIVE TO ENSURE THE MESSAGING FOR THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER REACHES AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND, OPTED TO JUMP ON BOARD
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO ISSUE AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING ON MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. ZONES WERE CREATED WITHIN THE HEADLINE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE TIMEFRAME IN WHICH TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION
AGAINST THE DANGEROUS COLD, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WHERE WIND CHILLS BOTTOMING OUT TO NEAR -30F COULD BE OBSERVED
FROM MONDAY AND SURPASSING THE LOWLANDS IN REGARDS TO LONGEVITY,
PLACING THEM THE LONGEST WITHIN THE WATCH UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEY IMPACTS THAT COULD ARISE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK INCLUDES INFRASTRUCTURE AND HEALTH CONCERNS. FROSTBITE CAN
OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES TO EXPOSED SKIN WHILE OUTDOORS
IN ADDITION FOR HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HYPOTHERMIA IN THESE
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE STRONG POTENTIAL OF RIVERS
AND CREEKS FREEZING OVER WITHIN THIS COLD REGIME, WHICH COULD
IMPACT LOCAL WATER SYSTEMS THAT PULL FROM THEM. UNPROTECTED
PIPES CAN FREEZE AND BURST. TO PREVENT RUPTURED WATER PIPES FROM
FREEZING, WRAP, DRAIN, OR ALLOW THEM TO DRIP SLOWLY. DRESS IN
WARM LAYERS WHENEVER FACED WITH THE COLD EXPOSURE. EXTREME CARE
IS ALSO ENCOURAGED FOR THE PROTECTION OF PETS AND LIVESTOCK.
A WARMING TREND IS NOT SET TO ENSUE UNTIL THURSDAY ONCE THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS OPENS THE
GATES FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO SAIL ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND YIELD POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT BKW, EKN, AND CKB. THESE
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT INTO VFR SOMETIME AFTER 12Z
THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT AND REMAIN VFR
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY'S
AS WELL IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE TAF
SITES VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET BUILDS OVER THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY. WIND DIRECTION CHANGE WITH HEIGHT IS SUBTLE
FROM SOUTHERLY AT THE SURFACE (10-15KTS LOWLANDS 20-25KTS MOUNTAINS)
TURNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST ALOFT (40+KTS), BUT GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS IT IS SOMETHING WORTH MENTIONING HERE
AT THE VERY LEAST AND MAY WELL BE INCORPORATED IN THE NEXT TAF
UPDATE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, AND IN SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>519-
521-524-525.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ520-522-523-526.
OH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...28/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...28/SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...28
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