500
FXUS61 KRLX 171930
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
230 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ON SUNDAY.
DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE AREA, USHERING IN ENOUGH WARM AIR THAT THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF A
WINTRY MIX ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
STINT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS, BEFORE ENOUGH WARM AIR CAN TAKE
HOLD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO MAINLY RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING,
WITH COLDER AIR, AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EXPECTED. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A BETTER
CHANCE IS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
LOST WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.
* CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TOTALS RANGING
FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS.
* UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE STORM'S TRACK AND HOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IMPACTED FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
A DISTURBANCE FIRST INTRODUCED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO CHURN MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AN INVASION OF COLD TEMPERATURES FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL YIELD A TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO ALL
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BECOMING AN ALL SNOW EVENT
FOR SUNDAY. WHILE SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE PROPOSING AN UPTICK IN
QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE STORM. ANY SHIFT TO THIS SYSTEM
COULD HEIGHTEN OR STIFLE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY, SO
HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON WINTER HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. IF THE 00Z MODEL SUITE TONIGHT
HOLDS ON TO THIS INCREASED TREND, THERE COULD BE NEED FOR AT
LEAST AN ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ALONG THE NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INSINUATES AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO SNOW SHOWERS, WHERE ACCUMULATIONS GREATER
THAN 5 TO 6 INCHES WILL OCCUR. WITH COORDINATION AMONGST
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICE, A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS HOISTED
FOR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES, HIGHLIGHTING THIS
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS ON
THE UPWARDS OF 40 MILES PER HOUR. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WRAP UP
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOOMING TO OUR NORTHWEST, AN ARCTIC BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR WILL
BE ON THE VERGE OF ENCROACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MORE
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* EXTREMELY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
MINUS 10 TO MINUS 15 DEGREES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AS
LOW AS MINUS 25 TO MINUS 30 ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
* EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED DURING THIS LONG EXPOSURE
OF COLD WEATHER. NOW IS THE TIME TO PROTECT EXPOSED
INFRASTRUCTURE AND ENSURE PROPER PROTECTION AGAINST THE COLD
WHEN SPENDING ANY TIME OUTDOORS.
* PERIODIC CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
THE MAJOR HEADLINE WITH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BE THE
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL TRIUMPH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGING
DOWN FROM CANADA INFILTRATES THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, PROMOTING THE FIRST OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE ANTICIPATED
LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS DROP BELOW ZERO DEGREES
AREAWIDE. WHILE THIS AIRMASS IS IN PLACE, VERY LITTLE HELP FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE, YIELDING COLD WEATHER TO
PREVAIL WELL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BOTH DIURNALLY
AND NOCTURNALLY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THESE
EXCESSIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD CAUSE HARM TO RESIDENTS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
IT IS IMPERATIVE TO ENSURE THE MESSAGING FOR THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER REACHES AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND, OPTED TO JUMP ON BOARD
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO ISSUE AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING ON MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. ZONES WERE CREATED WITHIN THE HEADLINE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE TIMEFRAME IN WHICH TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION
AGAINST THE DANGEROUS COLD, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WHERE WIND CHILLS BOTTOMING OUT TO NEAR -30F COULD BE OBSERVED
FROM MONDAY AND SURPASSING THE LOWLANDS IN REGARDS TO LONGEVITY,
PLACING THEM THE LONGEST WITHIN THE WATCH UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING.
KEY IMPACTS THAT COULD ARISE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK INCLUDES INFRASTRUCTURE AND HEALTH CONCERNS. FROSTBITE CAN
OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES TO EXPOSED SKIN WHILE OUTDOORS
IN ADDITION FOR HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HYPOTHERMIA IN THESE
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE STRONG POTENTIAL OF RIVERS
AND CREEKS FREEZING OVER WITHIN THIS COLD REGIME, WHICH COULD
IMPACT LOCAL WATER SYSTEMS THAT PULL FROM THEM. UNPROTECTED
PIPES CAN FREEZE AND BURST. TO PREVENT RUPTURED WATER PIPES FROM
FREEZING, WRAP, DRAIN, OR ALLOW THEM TO DRIP SLOWLY. DRESS IN
WARM LAYERS WHENEVER FACED WITH THE COLD EXPOSURE. EXTREME CARE
IS ALSO ENCOURAGED FOR THE PROTECTION OF PETS AND LIVESTOCK.
A WARMING TREND IS NOT SET TO ENSUE UNTIL THURSDAY ONCE THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS OPENS THE
GATES FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO SAIL ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND YIELD POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06-09Z WHEN RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS, DETERIORATING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
AREAS/LOCAL IFR GENERALLY AFTER 14Z AS PRECIPITATION AND LOWER
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO TAKE HOLD.
WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND GENERALLY
LIGHT, BUT COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES ON SATURDAY, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS LOWLANDS, AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS MOUNTAINS.
IN ADDITION, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 03Z TO 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
SATURDAY MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ON EVENING, AND IN SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>519-
521-524-525.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ039-040-519>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ520-522-523-526.
OH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...SL
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