011
FXUS61 KRLX 181050
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRIEFLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDES SNOW
SUNDAY. ARCTIC AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 550 AM SATURDAY...
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A BIT TO MATCH SOME HIGHER OBSERVATIONS DUE
TO INCREASED WARM ADVECTION. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AS WELL. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS TO
BE ON TRACK.
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY MIX
WITH SNOW IN COLDER AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BEFORE
PRIMARILY BECOMING ALL RAIN. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS MAY PERSIST IN REMAINING A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL
SNOW. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION USHERS IN
MUCH COLDER AIR ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
AND SHOULD BE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE IS THEN POISED TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AFTER
IT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR OUR AREA. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME DECENT ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT) AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 40'S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH THE HIGH ELEVATIONS A BIT COOLER AND THE MOUNTAINS
HOVERING AT AROUND FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE. AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES
BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BACK INTO THE
HIGH TEENS/LOW 20'S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, HELPING TO SET UP THE
AFOREMENTIONED SNOW EVENT POISED TO TAKE PLACE LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, PROVIDING A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE
VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE LOW END (90% CHANCE OF HAPPENING) TO HIGH END (10%
CHANCE OF HAPPENING) AT CHARLESTON IS 1 TO 7 INCHES, WHILE
ATHENS OHIO IS A TRACE TO 4 INCHES. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
SHOW A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF HITTING WARNING CRITERIA
IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, SO WENT WITH A WINTER WEATHER
WARNING IN THIS AREA. FOR AREAS SUCH AS CLARKSBURG AND
CHARLESTON AND BECKLEY, CONFIDENCE OF HITTING ADVISORY LEVEL IS
AROUND 90 PERCENT, WHILE CONFIDENCE IN WARNING CRITERIA IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT, SO WENT WITH AN ADVISORY. BE AWARE
THAT THIS REGION COULD NEED UPGRADING TO A WARNING IF HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED. INCLUDED THE REST OF WEST
VIRGINIA, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND LAWRENCE KENTUCKY IN AN
ADVISORY AS WELL. FURTHER WEST IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW IS ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT, SO DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION, ALTHOUGH HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
LATER. OVERALL, THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN NORTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO.
BEHIND THIS WAVE, ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AS MESO NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AN UPSLOPE FLOW,
AND AN AUTO CONVECTIVE LOWER LEVEL. IN COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
ARCTIC AIR, FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD, SO INCLUDED
FLURRIES FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ANYWHERE SKY COVER
WAS 30% OR HIGHER.
AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS ON
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES. HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT CRITERIA WILL BE MET. HAVE LEFT THE EXTREME COLD WATCH
IN OTHER LOCATIONS AS CRITERIA WILL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY/WARNING
LINE. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY COULD CREATE SOME CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY DIFFERENT
UPPER AIR PATTERNS. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 550 AM SATURDAY...
AS RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADS OVER THE AREA, MVFR CEILINGS
AND OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE OCCURRING AT THE MAJORITY OF
OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR BY LATE THIS
MORNING AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIKELY DETERIORATE SOMEWHAT
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA, COMBINING WITH COLD AIR TO
CREATE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO
MVFR VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL ALSO SPORADICALLY GUST IN THE 15 TO 25KT OR SO RANGE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN HAS BEEN MIXING DOWN SOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THIS, GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 5-10KTS WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND
INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAY VARY
FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H M M H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING, AND IN
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>519-
521-524-525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>031-033-034-515>518-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ032-039-040-519>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ520.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ522-523-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ522-523-526.
OH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY
FOR KYZ105.
VA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY
FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...28
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...28
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