648
FXUS61 KRLX 190607
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
107 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN, AND BECOMES HEAVY AT
TIMES SUNDAY. SNOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHOWERY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH MID- WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 105 AM SUNDAY...
THE COLD ADVECTION WAS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST, BUT ALL
BUT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY DAWN SUNDAY, WHEN A SNOWSTORM BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE FORECAST IS OTHERWISE LARGELY ON TRACK.
AS OF 845 PM SATURDAY...
EXPANDED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT PER HI-RES
MODELS AND LATEST GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS UPDATE BRINGS SOME SNOW OVER
PKB AND PORTIONS OF SE OH, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 2
INCHES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. WPC PROBABILISTIC FORECAST SUGGESTS SNOW INCREASING IN
INTENSITY FROM 12Z TO 18Z SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WV AND
OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY, WITH
PROGRESSIVELY HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS
* EXPANSION MADE TO THE WINTER HEADLINES TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT,
WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES AMID
OVERCAST SKIES. GIVEN RAIN FALLING ON SNOWPACK, SOME FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY CONTINUE EASTWARD, CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE,
USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, WITH 20S PROGGED
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY DAWN ON SUNDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT, BRINGING A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. GIVEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PROGGED AMOUNTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE, DID EXPAND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING TO THE SOUTHWEST, NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NEARBY SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
DID EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, NOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF OUR KY ZONES, MUCH OF OUR OH
ZONES, AND ALL OF THE REMAINING WV ZONES. ALL WINTER HEADLINES
RUN FROM 1 AM SUNDAY UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY. IN GENERAL, 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS OUR LOWLAND ZONES,
WHILE 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID
20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE CWA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* SNOW BECOMES LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME
FLURRIES POTENTIALLY LINGERING AS LONG AS TUESDAY - FLASH FREEZE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
* PERSONNEL / INFRASTRUCTURE COLD WEATHER IMPACTS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
* TEMPERATURES DO NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY, SLOW
IMPROVEMENT ON SECONDARY / TERTIARY ROADWAYS AND BLACK ICE
POSSIBLE EVEN ON PRIMARY ROADWAYS AS ICE ABATEMENT AGENTS LOSE
EFFECTIVENESS
* HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER A SNOW PACK WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS COULD YIELD SOME EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES IN COLD
AIR SINKS WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE REGION WILL BE A UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THIS STORM CONTINUES TO EXIT
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. VERY COLD AIR WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
AREA ON THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM THE
MID 20S SUNDAY EVENING TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH ADDED IN THIS WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM AROUND
MINUS 10 TO THE MID NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP
THE EXCESSIVE COLD WATCH GOING FOR NOW FOR ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING - WILL LIKELY BE
SHIFTING THE WATCH TO MAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL COLD WITH SUBSEQUENT
PACKAGES. THE WINDS MAY HELP TO DRY OUT PRIMARY TRAVEL SURFACES
SOMEWHAT, BUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE SUBJECT TO FLASH
FREEZING HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS ICE ABATEMENT AGENTS LOSE
EFFECTIVENESS IN THE COLD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO YIELD AN
UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION GIVING US SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS
IN ANY ENHANCED BANDING AND IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH LIGHTER SNOW
ELSEWHERE. THIS COULD YIELD SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS IN
THESE LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR SO OUTSIDE OF THEM.
REMAINING ACTIVITY GENERALLY TAPERS OFF AS FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES
MORE LIMITED, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER DOWN,
EXCEPT DOWNWIND LOCALIZED VAPOR SOURCES (EXAMPLE:
POWER PLANT EFFECT).
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST FOR THE RIDGES, MAY
OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE IN RESPONSE A MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH CROSSING DURING THE
DAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE, THIS FEATURE MAY
GENERATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
HIGH RATIO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERHEAD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WITH EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A SNOW PACK
IN MOST LOCATIONS RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE IN AN
ALREADY FRIGID AIRMASS RESULTING IN THE COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES OF
THIS WINTER WITH WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. AREAS SUBJECT TO
COLD AIR DRAINAGE COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER, CONSTRAINED ONLY BY
THE ABILITY FOR THE AIR TO CONTINUE TO SHED ITS MOISTURE CONTENT VIA
DEPOSITION.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON UNHOUSED POPULATIONS, AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON WATER CARRYING INFRASTRUCTURE. THIS COULD BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY
THE LONG WEEKEND FOR SOME WITH A LONGER OPPORTUNITY FOR WATER TO
FREEZE WHERE BUSINESSES ARE UNATTENDED. ACTION IS HIGHLY SUGGESTED
TO MITIGATE WATER OF FREEZING IN PIPES IN UNCONDITIONED SPACES OR
WHERE THEY ARE EXPOSED TO THE COLD.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED ICE
FORMATION ON WATER BODIES AND WATERWAYS WHICH COULD YIELD BOTH
EVENTUAL ICE JAM ISSUES AS WELL AS ISSUES WITH PEOPLE VENTURING OUT
ONTO THIN ICE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY
* OVERNIGHT REFREEZES OF MELTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A
CONCERN FOR BLACK ICE
ANOTHER COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. ONE MORE VERY COLD MORNING IS
LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE PRETTY INCONSISTENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR IT TO WORK WITH, SO PLAN TO STAY PRETTY
CLOSE TO CENTRAL GUIDANCE LOW END POPS FOR NOW. WHILE DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL GET TO NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIP INTO THE TEENS CREATING A CONTINUING CONCERN FOR
A REFREEZE / BLACK ICE.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 105 AM SUNDAY...
A SNOWSTORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE AREA REMAINS IN AN OVERCAST AND DAMP REGINE OVERNIGHT,
BEHIND A A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA. IFR CEILINGS REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL BUT PKB WHICH HAS A LOW END MVFR CEILING, WITH IFR
TO VLIFR VISIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WORST AT BKW, AND MVFR
VISIBILITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, CKB AND CRW, IN SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE INTO THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS.
THE SNOWSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FIRST THING SUNDAY
MORNING, AS A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TO SUBFREEZING AREAWIDE. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL DEVELOP
12-14Z, WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW FROM MID TO
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TO LOW-END MVFR AT TIMES
SUNDAY EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS AND MIST AS THE WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD, 02Z-06Z WEST TO EAST, COULD BRING BRIEF, GUSTY VLIFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL FRESHEN A BIT
AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT, A BIT
HIGHER AT BKW, AND HIGHER IN A GUSTY SNOW SHOWER AT ANY
LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN MODERATE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY FLUCTUATE
OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND LOW STRATOCUMULUS, AND SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO VLIFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY IN SNOW SUNDAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING
OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY VARY, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INTERRUPTIONS BY HEAVY, GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 01/19/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L M M H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H M M M M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H L L H L
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
014-017-019-020-524.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>519-521-524-
525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ013-015-016-
018-024>034-039-040-515>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ520.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ522-523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ075-076-
083>087.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ004.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM
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