439
FXUS61 KRLX 190808
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN, AND BECOMES HEAVY AT
TIMES TODAY. SNOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHOWERY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 105 AM SUNDAY...
THE COLD ADVECTION WAS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST, BUT ALL
BUT SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY DAWN SUNDAY, WHEN A SNOWSTORM BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
THE FORECAST IS OTHERWISE LARGELY ON TRACK.
AS OF 845 PM SATURDAY...
EXPANDED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT PER HI-RES
MODELS AND LATEST GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS UPDATE BRINGS SOME SNOW OVER
PKB AND PORTIONS OF SE OH, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 2
INCHES. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. WPC PROBABILISTIC FORECAST SUGGESTS SNOW INCREASING IN
INTENSITY FROM 12Z TO 18Z SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WV AND
OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY, WITH
PROGRESSIVELY HEAVIER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS
* EXPANSION MADE TO THE WINTER HEADLINES TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT,
WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES AMID
OVERCAST SKIES. GIVEN RAIN FALLING ON SNOWPACK, SOME FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY CONTINUE EASTWARD, CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE,
USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, WITH 20S PROGGED
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BY DAWN ON SUNDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT, BRINGING A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. GIVEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PROGGED AMOUNTS WITH 12Z GUIDANCE, DID EXPAND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING TO THE SOUTHWEST, NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NEARBY SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
DID EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST, NOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF OUR KY ZONES, MUCH OF OUR OH
ZONES, AND ALL OF THE REMAINING WV ZONES. ALL WINTER HEADLINES
RUN FROM 1 AM SUNDAY UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY. IN GENERAL, 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS OUR LOWLAND ZONES,
WHILE 5 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH MID
20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE CWA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL SQUEEZING THE SOUNDINGS AND THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS WAS WAY TOO LOW. IN COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND ARCTIC AIR, FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD, SO
INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR MONDAY ANYWHERE SKY COVER WAS 30 PERCENT
OR HIGHER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IN THE COLD AIR, THESE DISTURBANCES
TEND TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUITE EASILY, SO HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE.
A SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP THE
COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS OR
BELOW ZERO DEGREES. HAVE ISSUED COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING
HOURS LATER IN THE WEEK. TRIMMED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH TO JUST
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WHERE WARNING CRITERIA
IS THE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY,
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY
STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE.
MODELS AGREE A BIT BETTER ON FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, BUT STILL DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETURNS FOR SATURDAY, PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING EVEN MORE.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 105 AM SUNDAY...
A SNOWSTORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE AREA REMAINS IN AN OVERCAST AND DAMP REGINE OVERNIGHT,
BEHIND A A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA. IFR CEILINGS REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL BUT PKB WHICH HAS A LOW END MVFR CEILING, WITH IFR
TO VLIFR VISIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WORST AT BKW, AND MVFR
VISIBILITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, CKB AND CRW, IN SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE INTO THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS.
THE SNOWSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FIRST THING SUNDAY
MORNING, AS A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TO SUBFREEZING AREAWIDE. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL DEVELOP
12-14Z, WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW FROM MID TO
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TO LOW-END MVFR AT TIMES
SUNDAY EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS AND MIST AS THE WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD, 02Z-06Z WEST TO EAST, COULD BRING BRIEF, GUSTY VLIFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL FRESHEN A BIT
AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT, A BIT
HIGHER AT BKW, AND HIGHER IN A GUSTY SNOW SHOWER AT ANY
LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN MODERATE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY FLUCTUATE
OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND LOW STRATOCUMULUS, AND SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO VLIFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY IN SNOW SUNDAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING
OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY VARY, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INTERRUPTIONS BY HEAVY, GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 01/19/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H M M M M M H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
014-017-019-020-524.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ013-015-016-
018-024>034-039-040-515>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ039-
040-515>521-525.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ516-518-520.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ522-523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ075-076-
083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ067-
075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ066.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-
004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ004.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM
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