365
FXUS61 KRLX 190937
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES HEAVY AT
TIMES TODAY. SNOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHOWERY TONIGHT BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY MORNING. VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...
A SNOWSTORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY, AND THEN AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FASHION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN RESPONSE
TO A WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS, NEAR A FRONT SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY BECOME ALL SNOW
WHILE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ABOVE A LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION REGIME, FORCING FROM THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INSTIGATING THE
BAROCLINIC WAVE DEVELOPMENT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, MAXIMIZING LIFT IN THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
GROWTH TEMPERATURE ZONE, -12 TO -18C. THIS IS WHEN THE SNOW WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
TRAVEL CAN QUICKLY BECOME TREACHEROUS DURING THE DAYBREAK AND EARLY
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS ONLY
DETERIORATING THROUGH THE DAY, INCLUDING LOW VISIBILITY.
THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING, AND SNOWFALL DIMINISHES
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
TONIGHT COULD INSTIGATE HEAVY, GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN SNOW
SQUALLS, GIVEN A FORECAST SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER AXIS OF 1 TO 3
UNITS COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. POST- STORM TREATED ROADS
CAN BECOME SNOW COVERED AGAIN, WITH BRIEF LOW VISIBILITY BENEATH
THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THAN BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, BUT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP QUICKLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
LOOKED GOOD EXCEPT TO ADD MORGAN COUNTY IN EAST-CENTRAL OHIO, AND
UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN DICKENSON COUNTY, VIRGINIA TO
A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE REST OF THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS LOOKED
GOOD.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALL INTO AND THROUGH THE 20S THIS MORNING,
AND WILL BE STEADY OR CONTINUING TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE 20S THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THEN PLUMMET INTO THE 10S AND THEN SINGLE
DIGITS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT, EVEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS TERRAIN BY DAWN MONDAY. WIND CHILL INDICES BY DAWN
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND 10S
AND 20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
UPGRADED MORE OF THE EXTREME COLD WATCH TO AN EXTREMA COLD WARNING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WV,
AND CONVERTED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, ALL STARTING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. IN GENERAL, STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 4
INCHES FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA, 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR THE
WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS OUR LOWER TERRAIN, AND 5 TO 9 INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL SQUEEZING THE SOUNDINGS AND THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS WAS WAY TOO LOW. IN COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND ARCTIC AIR, FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD, SO
INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR MONDAY ANYWHERE SKY COVER WAS 30 PERCENT
OR HIGHER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IN THE COLD AIR, THESE DISTURBANCES
TEND TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUITE EASILY, SO HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE.
A SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP THE
COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS OR
BELOW ZERO DEGREES. HAVE ISSUED COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING
HOURS LATER IN THE WEEK. TRIMMED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH TO JUST
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WHERE WARNING CRITERIA
IS THE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY,
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY
STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE.
MODELS AGREE A BIT BETTER ON FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, BUT STILL DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETURNS FOR SATURDAY, PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING EVEN MORE.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 105 AM SUNDAY...
A SNOWSTORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE AREA REMAINS IN AN OVERCAST AND DAMP REGINE OVERNIGHT,
BEHIND A A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE AREA. IFR CEILINGS REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL BUT PKB WHICH HAS A LOW END MVFR CEILING, WITH IFR
TO VLIFR VISIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WORST AT BKW, AND MVFR
VISIBILITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, CKB AND CRW, IN SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE INTO THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS.
THE SNOWSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FIRST THING SUNDAY
MORNING, AS A WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TO SUBFREEZING AREAWIDE. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW WILL DEVELOP
12-14Z, WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW FROM MID TO
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TO LOW-END MVFR AT TIMES
SUNDAY EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS AND MIST AS THE WAVE EXITS.
HOWEVER, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD, 02Z-06Z WEST TO EAST, COULD BRING BRIEF, GUSTY VLIFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL FRESHEN A BIT
AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT, A BIT
HIGHER AT BKW, AND HIGHER IN A GUSTY SNOW SHOWER AT ANY
LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN MODERATE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY FLUCTUATE
OVERNIGHT IN STRATUS AND LOW STRATOCUMULUS, AND SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF IFR TO VLIFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY IN SNOW SUNDAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING
OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY VARY, INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INTERRUPTIONS BY HEAVY, GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 01/19/25
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H L H M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H M M M H L H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
014-017-019-020-524.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ013-015-016-
018-024>034-039-040-515>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ039-
040-515>521-525.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ516-518-520.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ522-523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ067-075-
076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ067-
075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ066.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-
004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM
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