309
FXUS61 KRLX 191831
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
STEADY AND HEAVY SNOW EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS OR SQUALLS
TONIGHT. VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* BANDED HEAVY SNOW EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING
REPLACED BY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH LATE EVENING
* SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE ENHANCED SHOWER/SQUALLY ACTIVITY
LATE EVENING / EARLY TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC FRONT -
OUTSIDE OF THESE LOCALIZED HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUED MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
* AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET OVERNIGHT, ICE MELT AGENTS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY LOSE EFFECTIVENESS - A FLASH FREEZE ON ROADWAYS IS
POSSIBLE WHERE ROADWAYS REMAIN WET OR SLUSHY HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING
* SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITION TO FLURRIES AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS CUTOFF
MONDAY.
BANDED SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SNOW EXITS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING REPLACED BY LARGELY LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN NON-ACCUMULATING
FLURRIES IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING OVERNIGHT
WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND YIELD RENEWED LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWER / SQUALLY ACTIVITY AMID PLUNGING TEMPERATURES. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BE RELATIVELY SHORT IN DURATION, BUT COULD EASILY
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED INCH OR TWO, SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE PLUNGING TEMPERATURES ON TRAVEL SURFACES
WHERE MELTING FROM EITHER TREATMENT OR FILTERED INSOLATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS LEFT WATER AND/OR SLUSH ON SURFACES. AS ROAD SKIN
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL, UNTREATED WET SURFACES WILL LIKELY START
FREEZING AS SOON AS THIS EVENING WITH TREATED SURFACES POTENTIALLY
FLASH FREEZING HEADING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING AS ICE
MELTING AGENTS LOSE EFFECTIVENESS. THIS WILL BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
BY ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
SUCKING THE HEAT OF OF THE SKIN LAYER EVEN MORE QUICKLY. IT TAKES
AROUND 10 TIMES AS MUCH ROCK SALT TO MELT THE SAME AMOUNT OF ICE
WITH ROAD SKIN TEMPERATURES AT 10 DEGREES AS IT DOES AT 30 DEGREES.
WITH THESE CONCERNS, PLAN TO CONTINUE EXISTING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS IS AT LEAST UNTIL WE CAN GET THROUGH THE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND SEE HOW
CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING AS THE TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. THE MOST
LIKELY COUNTIES TO EVENTUALLY BE TRIMMED WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF
THE EVENT WERE RATHER LIMITED.
FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT HEADING INTO
DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD SEVER THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION
YIELDING A DOWNTICK IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY. WITH SUCH A COLD COLUMN
HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY STILL BE PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR FLURRIES WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST. WILL KEEP FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL THESE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT YIELDING WIND CHILL
VALUES AS LOW AS MINUS 14 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND -30 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS RESPECTIVELY. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THIS WILL
MARK THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER WITH IMPACTS TO
UNHOUSED POPULATIONS AND UNPROTECTED WATER CARRYING INFRASTRUCTURE
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MONDAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL SQUEEZING THE SOUNDINGS AND THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS WAS WAY TOO LOW. IN COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND ARCTIC AIR, FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD, SO
INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR MONDAY ANYWHERE SKY COVER WAS 30 PERCENT
OR HIGHER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IN THE COLD AIR, THESE DISTURBANCES
TEND TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUITE EASILY, SO HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE.
A SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP THE
COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE SEASON FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS OR
BELOW ZERO DEGREES. HAVE ISSUED COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING
HOURS LATER IN THE WEEK. TRIMMED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH TO JUST
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WHERE WARNING CRITERIA
IS THE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY,
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER INTO THURSDAY. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY
STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE.
MODELS AGREE A BIT BETTER ON FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, BUT STILL DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETURNS FOR SATURDAY, PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING EVEN MORE.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...
HEAVY BANDED SNOW HAS ALREADY EXITED HTS/CRW/PKB, AND WILL EXIT
EKN/BKW/CKB IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES 2 TO 5 MILES WILL THEN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE ARCTIC
FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. COINCIDENT WITH THE
FRONT EXPECT AN UPTICK IN SHOWERY/SQUALLY ACTIVITY AND HAVE TRIED TO
DEPICT THIS POSSIBILITY WITH PROB30 GROUPS. ANY HEAVIER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF UNLESS A BAND CAN SET UP DIRECTLY ON TOP OF A
TERMINAL. ACTIVITY THEN TAPERS OFF TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LIKELY
PERSISTING UNTIL THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK CAN ERODE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 8-10KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS
OR 20S, HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY
VARY, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INTERRUPTIONS BY HEAVY, GUSTY SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L H H L M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L M H H L M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L M M H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H L L H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M L L H L L H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
014-017-019-020-524.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ013-015-016-
018-024>034-039-040-515>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ039-
040-515>521-525.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ516-518-520.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ522-523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ067-075-
076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ067-
075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ066.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-
004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...JP/GW
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JP
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