629
FXUS61 KRLX 200011
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
711 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. VERY COLD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 523 PM SUNDAY...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS
PER INCOMING SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS OH, EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY.
EXPECT A QUICK BURST OF SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25
MPH, AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL WV LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE SNOW SQUALLS CAN PRODUCE A QUICK COATING OF SNOW, AND
RAPIDLY FALLING VISIBILITY, CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* BANDED HEAVY SNOW EXITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING
REPLACED BY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH LATE EVENING
* SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LAKE ENHANCED SHOWER/SQUALLY ACTIVITY
LATE EVENING / EARLY TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC FRONT -
OUTSIDE OF THESE LOCALIZED HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUED MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
* AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET OVERNIGHT, ICE MELT AGENTS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY LOSE EFFECTIVENESS - A FLASH FREEZE ON ROADWAYS IS
POSSIBLE WHERE ROADWAYS REMAIN WET OR SLUSHY HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING
* SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITION TO FLURRIES AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE IS CUTOFF
MONDAY.
BANDED SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SNOW EXITS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING REPLACED BY LARGELY LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN NON-ACCUMULATING
FLURRIES IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM. AN ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING OVERNIGHT
WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND YIELD RENEWED LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWER / SQUALLY ACTIVITY AMID PLUNGING TEMPERATURES. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MUCH COLDER AIR BE RELATIVELY SHORT IN DURATION, BUT COULD EASILY
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED INCH OR TWO, SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE PLUNGING TEMPERATURES ON TRAVEL SURFACES
WHERE MELTING FROM EITHER TREATMENT OR FILTERED INSOLATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS LEFT WATER AND/OR SLUSH ON SURFACES. AS ROAD SKIN
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL, UNTREATED WET SURFACES WILL LIKELY START
FREEZING AS SOON AS THIS EVENING WITH TREATED SURFACES POTENTIALLY
FLASH FREEZING HEADING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING AS ICE
MELTING AGENTS LOSE EFFECTIVENESS. THIS WILL BE FURTHER EXACERBATED
BY ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
SUCKING THE HEAT OF OF THE SKIN LAYER EVEN MORE QUICKLY. IT TAKES
AROUND 10 TIMES AS MUCH ROCK SALT TO MELT THE SAME AMOUNT OF ICE
WITH ROAD SKIN TEMPERATURES AT 10 DEGREES AS IT DOES AT 30 DEGREES.
WITH THESE CONCERNS, PLAN TO CONTINUE EXISTING WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS IS AT LEAST UNTIL WE CAN GET THROUGH THE HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND SEE HOW
CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING AS THE TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. THE MOST
LIKELY COUNTIES TO EVENTUALLY BE TRIMMED WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF
THE EVENT WERE RATHER LIMITED.
FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT HEADING INTO
DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD SEVER THE UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION
YIELDING A DOWNTICK IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY. WITH SUCH A COLD COLUMN
HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY STILL BE PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW OR FLURRIES WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST. WILL KEEP FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL THESE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT YIELDING WIND CHILL
VALUES AS LOW AS MINUS 14 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND -30 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS RESPECTIVELY. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. THIS WILL
MARK THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER WITH IMPACTS TO
UNHOUSED POPULATIONS AND UNPROTECTED WATER CARRYING INFRASTRUCTURE
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* BITTER COLD CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED DURING THIS LONG EXPOSURE
OF BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THE REGION WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE MIDST OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK
MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION. A FEW FLURRIES COULD LINGER EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS, WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND WIND CHILLS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES COLDER. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, A BIT OF A BREEZE RESULTS
IN WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -25 RANGE. GIVEN SUCH, AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THERE. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS
AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
TUESDAY BRINGS CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. GIVEN SUCH, DID INTRODUCE
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AREA-WIDE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHT COATING IN SPOTS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S IN THE LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD. CLEARING SKIES, CALMING WINDS, AND A
HEALTHY SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LOWLAND COLD SPOTS AND MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE TYPICAL
MOUNTAIN VALLEY COLD SPOTS COULD APPROACH -20 OR COLDER.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BITTER COLD
REMAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT
OF TUESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT THE TYPICAL COLD AIR DRAINAGE BASINS COULD BE
SEVERAL TO NUMEROUS DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
PROGGED IN THE FORECAST GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK OVER THE
AREA, AS GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
SUCH SCENARIOS.
IN TERMS OF HEADLINES, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WARMER CONDITIONS (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY
* TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH NORMAL BY SATURDAY
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR. WHILE MUCH WARMER THAN
EARLY IN THE WEEK, PROGGED HIGHS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY ARE STILL
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY, BUT WILL
AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE BITTER COLD THAT WILL BE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONGER RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES APPROACH NORMAL. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BRINGS BACK THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 710 PM SUNDAY...
MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING BKW, EKN AND CKB BEYOND MIDNIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL WV AFFECTING CRW WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY, PERHAPS TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. HOWEVER, AN
ARCTIC FRONT, ENTERING THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS, AND BRIEF SHOT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, TEMPORARILY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT HTS, PKB AND CRW ROUGHLY 03Z TO 05Z,
SPREADING EAST WHILE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY TO AFFECT THE REST
OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
GENERAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS
THE WESTERN SITES BY 10-12Z MONDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN SITES BY 16-18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT,
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. GUSTS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S WILL BE
COMMON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY
VARY, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INTERRUPTIONS BY HEAVY, GUSTY SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H M M M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L H H L H L H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
014-017-019-020-524.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ013-015-016-
018-024>034-039-040-515>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ039-
040-515>521-525.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ516-518-520.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ522-523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ067-075-
076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ067-
075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ066.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-
004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...JP/GW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...ARJ
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