888
FXUS61 KRLX 201018
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
518 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPPER OFF OT FLURRIES THIS MORNING. VERY
COLD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 518 AM MONDAY...
HAVE DROPPED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND LAWRENCE COUNTY KENTUCKY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED. FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA. MESSAGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE SLICK ROADS
HOWEVER.
AS OF 155 AM MONDAY...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
HAS ALREADY TAPERED OFF TO FLURRIES WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING, SO HAVE ENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN THIS AREA. MESSAGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE SLICK ROADS
HOWEVER.
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STILL SQUEEZING THE SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AND THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS WAS WAY TOO LOW. IN ARCTIC AIR,
FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD, SO INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR
TODAY ANYWHERE SKY COVER WAS 30 PERCENT OR HIGHER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IN THE COLD AIR, THESE DISTURBANCES
TEND TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUITE EASILY, SO HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* BITTER COLD CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED DURING THIS LONG EXPOSURE
OF BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
THE REGION WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE MIDST OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK
MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE
REGION. A FEW FLURRIES COULD LINGER EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY FOOTHILLS, WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND WIND CHILLS AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES COLDER. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, A BIT OF A BREEZE RESULTS
IN WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -25 RANGE. GIVEN SUCH, AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THERE. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS
AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
TUESDAY BRINGS CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. GIVEN SUCH, DID INTRODUCE
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AREA-WIDE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHT COATING IN SPOTS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S IN THE LOWLANDS, WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD. CLEARING SKIES, CALMING WINDS, AND A
HEALTHY SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH TEENS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LOWLAND COLD SPOTS AND MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE TYPICAL
MOUNTAIN VALLEY COLD SPOTS COULD APPROACH -20 OR COLDER.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BITTER COLD
REMAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT
OF TUESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT THE TYPICAL COLD AIR DRAINAGE BASINS COULD BE
SEVERAL TO NUMEROUS DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
PROGGED IN THE FORECAST GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK OVER THE
AREA, AS GUIDANCE TYPICALLY STRUGGLES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
SUCH SCENARIOS.
IN TERMS OF HEADLINES, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WARMER CONDITIONS (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY
* TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH NORMAL BY SATURDAY
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR. WHILE MUCH WARMER THAN
EARLY IN THE WEEK, PROGGED HIGHS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY ARE STILL
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY, BUT WILL
AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE BITTER COLD THAT WILL BE
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONGER RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES APPROACH NORMAL. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BRINGS BACK THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR. SOME FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 01/20/25
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-524.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR WVZ516-518-520.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ009>011-019-020-031-032-039-040-516-
518>521-525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032-039-040-515-517-519-521-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ013-
015-016-018-024>034-039-040-515>523-525-526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ020-
524.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ039-
040-515>521-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522-523-
526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ067-
075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR OHZ066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR OHZ067-076.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ067-075-076-083>085.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-
004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...RPY
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