618
FXUS61 KRLX 201044
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
544 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPPER OFF OT FLURRIES THIS MORNING. VERY
COLD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A REINFORCING FRONT
LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 155 AM MONDAY...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
HAS ALREADY TAPERED OFF TO FLURRIES WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING, SO HAVE ENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN THIS AREA. MESSAGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE SLICK ROADS
HOWEVER.
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STILL SQUEEZING THE SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AND THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS WAS WAY TOO LOW. IN ARCTIC AIR,
FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD, SO INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR
TODAY ANYWHERE SKY COVER WAS 30 PERCENT OR HIGHER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IN THE COLD AIR, THESE DISTURBANCES
TEND TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUITE EASILY, SO HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 540 AM MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD BRINGS THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
ARCTIC AIR ALREADY IN PLACE IS REINFORCED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
SATURATION LAYER IN THE ARCTIC AIR SPELLS AT LEAST THE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS FEATURE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM BRINGS DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE GIVING WAY TO LIGHT SOUTH LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY WILL BE INEFFECTIVE, ALTHOUGH HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TOP TRACK THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS, WITH 10S FORECAST ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOULD PROVE BE THE NADIR OF THIS CURRENT ARCTIC
OUTBREAK, AND COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON SO FAR, WITH LOWS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO MODERATE TO THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY MORNING.
ALL REMAINING EXTREME COLD WATCHES HAVE NOW BEEN REPLACED BY
EITHER WARNINGS OR COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES. WARNINGS CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 540 AM MONDAY...
THE DEEP FREEZE RELAXES FOR THE END THE WORK WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT DO CROSS CROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH A BIT OF
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
AFTER HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO END IT.
TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY,
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BUMPS HIGHS BACK DOWN JUST A BIT FRIDAY,
FOR A BRIEF INTERRUPTION IN A WARMING TREND THAT THEN RESUMES
OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS ALSO MODERATE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS, WITH 10S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, AND THEN 20S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THIS SPELLS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING, WITH CEILINGS BECOMING VFR. SOME FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 01/20/25
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-524.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-014-017-019-020-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ013-
015-016-018-024>034-039-040-515>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ039-
040-515>521-525.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ516-518-520.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ522-523-526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ067-
075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-
004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...RPY
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