750
FXUS61 KRLX 201951
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
FLURRIES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. VERY COLD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A
REINFORCING FRONT LATE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 830 AM MONDAY...
ALLOWED WINTER ADVISORY/WARNING HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM AS
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER/SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 518 AM MONDAY...
HAVE DROPPED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND LAWRENCE COUNTY KENTUCKY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS ENDED. FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA. MESSAGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE SLICK ROADS
HOWEVER.
AS OF 155 AM MONDAY...
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
HAS ALREADY TAPERED OFF TO FLURRIES WITH THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ENDING, SO HAVE ENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN THIS AREA. MESSAGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE SLICK ROADS
HOWEVER.
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STILL SQUEEZING THE SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AND THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS WAS WAY TOO LOW. IN ARCTIC AIR,
FLURRIES USUALLY FALL FROM ANY CLOUD, SO INCLUDED FLURRIES FOR
TODAY ANYWHERE SKY COVER WAS 30 PERCENT OR HIGHER.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, IN THE COLD AIR, THESE DISTURBANCES
TEND TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES QUITE EASILY, SO HAVE
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
KEY POINTS
* COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE BELOW ZERO. MOUNTAIN LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES FULLY OVER THE CWA. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CALMING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE WEEK FOR MOST OF THE CWA AS FAR AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
CONCERNED. MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT
SUCH THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL FACTOR,
BUT WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR LOWLANDS, THEY LOOK TO VERIFY A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY THERE ON AIR TEMPS ALONE. FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OT THE
LOWLANDS, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -5F UP TO JUST ABOVE
0F. WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS TO KICK
WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST, AND LIKELY
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY, IT WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS. THE MOUNTAINS MAY WARM UP INTO
THE LOWER TEENS, WHILE LOWLANDS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS TO
THE MID-20S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COLD, WITH MOST OF THE
AREA BACK ABOVE ZERO AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND GENTLE S-SE'LY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY SEES A NICE WARM UP
AS WINDS SHIFT SW'LY AND INCREASE A BIT - WITH HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECTING A WEAK AND MOISTURE-CHALLENGED SYSTEM TO CROSS THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WE STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOSTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT OUR HIGHEST POPS ARE UNDER 40 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME, SO IT'S STILL A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN EVENT AT THIS TIME IN
TERMS OF COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY, SO IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW, WHATEVER MAY
OR MAY NOT FALL. AFTER A DRY SPELL SATURDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 20S
TO MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS, MODELS HAVE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH,
TRACK, AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE SYSTEM. KEPT POPS TO 50 PERCENT
OR LOWER FOR NOW, AND STILL SHOW AN ALL- SNOW START CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST
23Z, WHEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD
AREA WIDE. -SHSN CONTINUES TO FALL OUT OF THE MVFR DECK, AND AT
TIMES IS CREATING REDUCED VISIBILITIES, MAINLY IN THE MVFR
RANGE.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AREA WIDE WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED AREA
WIDE.
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY, THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES
AGAIN, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. FOR NOW,
INTRODUCED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF, AND WILL ALLOW FUTURE
SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE WORSENING CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVERNIGHT MAY
VARY FROM FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
-SHSN ON TUESDAY MAY OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-524.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR WVZ516-518-520.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ009>011-019-020-031-032-039-040-516-
518>521-525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032-039-040-515-517-519-521-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ039-
040-515>521-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522-523-
526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ067-
075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY
FOR OHZ066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR OHZ067-076.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ067-075-076-083>085.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...SL
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