861
FXUS61 KRLX 210551
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1251 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A REINFORCING FRONT TODAY, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. ARCTIC AIR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING LATE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 825 PM MONDAY...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR TONIGHT AS OBSERVATIONS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING COLDER THAN EXPECTED. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 505 PM MONDAY...
FRESHENED UP DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK
THIS EVENING.
AS OF 252 PM MONDAY...
COLD TONIGHT UNDER SFC HIGH, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW PACK IN
PLACE. HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN
CHECK, AKA, FROM FALLING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, AND PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA. DID ELECT TO EXPAND THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BASED ON COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS.
HOWEVER, WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED, AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER, THINKING SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES WILL NOT
EXACTLY HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, WITH SCHOOL STARTING
BACK UP ON TUESDAY, AND COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS, DID ELECT
TO EXPAND FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
KEY POINTS
* COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE BELOW ZERO. MOUNTAIN LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES FULLY OVER THE CWA. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CALMING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE WEEK FOR MOST OF THE CWA AS FAR AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
CONCERNED. MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT
SUCH THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL FACTOR,
BUT WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR LOWLANDS, THEY LOOK TO VERIFY A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY THERE ON AIR TEMPS ALONE. FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OT THE
LOWLANDS, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -5F UP TO JUST ABOVE
0F. WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS TO KICK
WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST, AND LIKELY
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY, IT WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS. THE MOUNTAINS MAY WARM UP INTO
THE LOWER TEENS, WHILE LOWLANDS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS TO
THE MID-20S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COLD, WITH MOST OF THE
AREA BACK ABOVE ZERO AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND GENTLE S-SE'LY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY SEES A NICE WARM UP
AS WINDS SHIFT SW'LY AND INCREASE A BIT - WITH HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECTING A WEAK AND MOISTURE-CHALLENGED SYSTEM TO CROSS THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WE STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOSTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT OUR HIGHEST POPS ARE UNDER 40 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME, SO IT'S STILL A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN EVENT AT THIS TIME IN
TERMS OF COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY, SO IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW, WHATEVER MAY
OR MAY NOT FALL. AFTER A DRY SPELL SATURDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 20S
TO MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS, MODELS HAVE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH,
TRACK, AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE SYSTEM. KEPT POPS TO 50 PERCENT
OR LOWER FOR NOW, AND STILL SHOW AN ALL- SNOW START CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH SOME
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS. A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MEDIUM TODAY.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 01/21/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>521-524-525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ516-518-520.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032-039-040-515-517-519-521-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522-523-
526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ067-075-076-083>085.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/JLB
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...RPY
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