691
FXUS61 KRLX 210657
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A REINFORCING FRONT TODAY, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. ARCTIC AIR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING LATE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
ELKINS HAS REACH -15 THIS MORNING WITH OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS IN THAT RANGE AS WELL, SO WILL
UPGRADE THEM INTO THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNINGS OTHER COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEMS IN THE ARCTIC AIR ARE USUALLY
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING SNOW, AS NOTED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE POPS.
HAVE OPTED TO USE MOS INSTEAD OF THE MUCH LOWER NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS FOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
AS THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN TONIGHT, EXPECT PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY END/CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH SNOW
ON THE GROUND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE WELL BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. WILL
ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS THAT CURRENTLY DON'T
HAVE ONE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...
KEY POINTS
* COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE BELOW ZERO. MOUNTAIN LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CUT OFF BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES FULLY OVER THE CWA. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CALMING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE WEEK FOR MOST OF THE CWA AS FAR AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
CONCERNED. MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT
SUCH THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL FACTOR,
BUT WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR LOWLANDS, THEY LOOK TO VERIFY A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY THERE ON AIR TEMPS ALONE. FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OT THE
LOWLANDS, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -5F UP TO JUST ABOVE
0F. WINDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS TO KICK
WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST, AND LIKELY
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY, IT WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS. THE MOUNTAINS MAY WARM UP INTO
THE LOWER TEENS, WHILE LOWLANDS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS TO
THE MID-20S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COLD, WITH MOST OF THE
AREA BACK ABOVE ZERO AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AND GENTLE S-SE'LY WINDS DEVELOP. THURSDAY SEES A NICE WARM UP
AS WINDS SHIFT SW'LY AND INCREASE A BIT - WITH HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECTING A WEAK AND MOISTURE-CHALLENGED SYSTEM TO CROSS THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WE STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING MOSTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT OUR HIGHEST POPS ARE UNDER 40 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME, SO IT'S STILL A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN EVENT AT THIS TIME IN
TERMS OF COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY, SO IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW, WHATEVER MAY
OR MAY NOT FALL. AFTER A DRY SPELL SATURDAY, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 20S
TO MID-30S IN THE MOUNTAINS, MODELS HAVE SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH,
TRACK, AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE SYSTEM. KEPT POPS TO 50 PERCENT
OR LOWER FOR NOW, AND STILL SHOW AN ALL- SNOW START CHANGING TO
RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH SOME
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS. A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MEDIUM TODAY.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 01/21/25
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EST 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>521-524-525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ516-518-520.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032-039-040-515-517-519-521-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522-523-
526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ067-075-076-083>085.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page