466
FXUS61 KRLX 211601
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1101 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A REINFORCING FRONT TODAY, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. ARCTIC AIR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING LATE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...
ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND DROP MUCH OF THE ADVISORY FOR THE DAY
TIME HOURS AS SCHEDULED, EXCEPT DID GO AHEAD AND JUST HOLD ONTO
PERRY COUNTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/NIGHT, JUST SO IT
MATCHES UP BETTER WITH NEIGHBORS, ALTHOUGH THEY ALSO APPEAR TO
LARGELY BE ABOVE THE -5 THRESHOLD. DID START COLD ADVISORY
HEADLINES ACROSS THE CWA EARLIER TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. NOW START HEADLINES AT 7PM INSTEAD OF 1 AM.
AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...
TWEAKED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS WE ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO WARM THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO,
ELECTED TO DROP TODAYS LOW TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH BASED ON
THE VERY COLD MORNING AND SLOW WARM UP, BUT OVERALL STILL HAVE
US WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. STILL TRYING TO CONSIDER WHAT TO
DO WITH THE COLD HEADLINES THIS MORNING, WHETHER TO JUST KEEP
THEM GOING ALL DAY, OR LET THEM DROP OFF FOR A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE GOING BACK INTO EFFECT. CURRENT
THOUGHT IS EVEN IF I DO ALLOW THEM TO DROP THIS AFTERNOON, THAT
I WILL MOVE UP THE START TIME FOR TONIGHT BY THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
HAVE UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR COUNTIES IN
NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES.
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
ELKINS HAS REACH -15 THIS MORNING WITH OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS IN THAT RANGE AS WELL, SO WILL
UPGRADE THEM INTO THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNINGS OTHER COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYSTEMS IN THE ARCTIC AIR ARE USUALLY
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING SNOW, AS NOTED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE POPS.
HAVE OPTED TO USE MOS INSTEAD OF THE MUCH LOWER NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS FOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
AS THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR PUSHES IN TONIGHT, EXPECT PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY END/CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH SNOW
ON THE GROUND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE WELL BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. WILL
ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS THAT CURRENTLY DON'T
HAVE ONE.
SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE,
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
WV MOUNTAINS, AS DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RESPECTIVELY.
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER WITH HIGH'S
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH SOME
TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV AND HIGH SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AGAIN, WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN WV IN THE LOW
TEENS. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER, HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID 30'S FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS, BUT THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OHIO WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
A CLIPPER WILL THEN PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
FRIDAY, GIVING US AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
DOESN'T APPEAR THAT ANY NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE GOING TO OCCUR
WITH DRYER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO IN QUESTION SOMEWHAT
AS SOLUTIONS DISAGREE WITH HOW LONG THE BOUNDARY LINGERS FRIDAY AND
THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD LEAVING AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA WHERE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING AND TERRAIN ADVANTAGE. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY LATE FRIDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
AND LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT OUR AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL LIKELY RECEIVE SOME
PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH TYPE AND AMOUNT ARE STILL IN QUESTION GIVEN
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE RETURN FLUCTUATIONS. IT IS LIKELY
THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
UNTIL WE CAN GET A MORE CLEAR PICTURE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEMS ARRIVAL.
ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE OF THINGS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARMER
THAN OUR CURRENT DRAW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING EACH
DAY IN THE LONG TERM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30'S AND EVEN LOW 40'S
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. EACH NIGHT,
HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEASONABLE COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20'S AND LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 520 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH SOME
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS. A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MEDIUM TODAY.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L H H H L M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M L L M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L H M M M M M L H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>521-
524-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522-523-
526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...RPY
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