087
FXUS61 KRLX 211846
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A REINFORCING FRONT TODAY, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. ARCTIC AIR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING LATE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
OVERALL, MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST, IS CREATING AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS, AND GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL, OBSERVING ONLY A FEW SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN PARTS OF OHIO, AND THINK FOR THE MOST
PART, THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. HOWEVER, CANT RULE OUT
SOME SQUALLS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY IN PARTS
OF SE OHIO AND THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH ANOTHER PUNCH OF COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION, A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY, SNOW COVER, AND EVENTUAL CALM
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN, EXPECTING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING YET AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH MANY LOCATIONS BOTTOMING
OUT BELOW ZERO. SO, DESPITE VERY LIGHT TO LITTLE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWLANDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THE COLD AIR IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT COLD ADVISORY HEADLINES EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS,
OF WHICH SOME MOUNTAIN ZONES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING DUE TO CONTINUED WINDS AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SUNNY, AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS TO TOP OUT IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, A TROPICAL HEAT WAVE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE,
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
WV MOUNTAINS, AS DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RESPECTIVELY.
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER WITH HIGH'S
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH SOME
TEENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV AND HIGH SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AGAIN, WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN WV IN THE LOW
TEENS. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER, HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID 30'S FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLANDS, BUT THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OHIO WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
A CLIPPER WILL THEN PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
FRIDAY, GIVING US AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
DOESN'T APPEAR THAT ANY NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE GOING TO OCCUR
WITH DRYER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO IN QUESTION SOMEWHAT
AS SOLUTIONS DISAGREE WITH HOW LONG THE BOUNDARY LINGERS FRIDAY AND
THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD LEAVING AT
LEAST CHANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA WHERE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING AND TERRAIN ADVANTAGE. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY LATE FRIDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20'S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
AND LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT OUR AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL LIKELY RECEIVE SOME
PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH TYPE AND AMOUNT ARE STILL IN QUESTION GIVEN
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE RETURN FLUCTUATIONS. IT IS LIKELY
THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
UNTIL WE CAN GET A MORE CLEAR PICTURE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEMS ARRIVAL.
ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE OF THINGS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARMER
THAN OUR CURRENT DRAW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING EACH
DAY IN THE LONG TERM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30'S AND EVEN LOW 40'S
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. EACH NIGHT,
HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEASONABLE COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20'S AND LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 520 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH SOME
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS. PERIOD OF MOST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
GENERALLY IN THE 21 THROUGH 06Z TIME FRAME, WITH AN INCREASE
THEN EVENTUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS ONE MOVES WEST TO EAST.
ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST, EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EST 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H L L L H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-
519-521-524.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ516-518-520-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522-523-
526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...JRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...SL
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