496
FXUS61 KRLX 211951
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A REINFORCING FRONT TODAY, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE. ARCTIC AIR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING LATE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
OVERALL, MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST, IS CREATING AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS, AND GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL, OBSERVING ONLY A FEW SPOTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN PARTS OF OHIO, AND THINK FOR THE MOST
PART, THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. HOWEVER, CANT RULE OUT
SOME SQUALLS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY IN PARTS
OF SE OHIO AND THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA LATE
THIS EVENING. WITH ANOTHER PUNCH OF COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION, A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY, SNOW COVER, AND EVENTUAL CALM
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN, EXPECTING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING YET AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH MANY LOCATIONS BOTTOMING
OUT BELOW ZERO. SO, DESPITE VERY LIGHT TO LITTLE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWLANDS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THE COLD AIR IS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT COLD ADVISORY HEADLINES EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS,
OF WHICH SOME MOUNTAIN ZONES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING DUE TO CONTINUED WINDS AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SUNNY, AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS TO TOP OUT IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, A TROPICAL HEAT WAVE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* AFTN HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
* A WEAK CLIPPER COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE DRY WITH LIMITED
QPF, NBM PROBABILITIES DO SHOW POCKETS OF 10-30% OF SEEING 1" OF
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE HIGHER RATIOS AND UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. STILL WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED
TO SEE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS THE MOST PREFERRED UPSLOPE
REGIONS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND FOOTHILLS, FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
TEMPS WARM A LITTLE THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. ONCE THE CLIPPER PASSES INTO FRIDAY, DAYTIME
HIGHS DROP BACK INTO MID/UPPER 20S WITH TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
* A STORM SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE TRACK AND ANY IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 30S AND FOR SOME SPOTS THE LOWER 40S.
FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING OVER THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS SHOW SOME CLUSTERING ON TWO
SOLUTIONS. ONE POTENTIAL IDEA IS THE SYSTEM DOES NOT QUITE
PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LEADING TO A PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM WITH A LIGHT/SHOWERY WINTRY MIX AND OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
ANOTHER SCENARIO IS BETTER PHASING WITH HIGHER POPS AND MORE
QPF/WINTRY PRECIP. REGARDLESS OF THE TWO EMERGING SOLUTIONS,
TEMP ARE MARGINAL AND QPF APPEARS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT THIS
TIME. THE TIME FRAME WOULD BE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR ANY POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 520 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY WITH SOME
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS. PERIOD OF MOST SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
GENERALLY IN THE 21 THROUGH 06Z TIME FRAME, WITH AN INCREASE
THEN EVENTUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS ONE MOVES WEST TO EAST.
ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST, EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EST 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M M M H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H L L L H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-
519-521-524.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ516-518-520-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ522-523-
526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...JRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...SL
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