092
FXUS61 KRLX 220604
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
104 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT, CAUSING TEMPERATURES AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES TO NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HOW MUCH RADIATION WILL OCCUR
AS CLOUDS AND WINDS COULD EFFECT THIS. FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, IT APPEARS THAT CRITERIA FOR THE EXTREME COLD
WARNING WILL NOT BE MET AFTER THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, WILL
END THE WARNING THIS MORNING AND WILL RUN A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* AFTN HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
* A WEAK CLIPPER COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THROUGH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE DRY WITH LIMITED
QPF, NBM PROBABILITIES DO SHOW POCKETS OF 10-30% OF SEEING 1" OF
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE HIGHER RATIOS AND UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. STILL WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED
TO SEE A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS THE MOST PREFERRED UPSLOPE
REGIONS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND FOOTHILLS, FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
TEMPS WARM A LITTLE THURSDAY, BUT REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. ONCE THE CLIPPER PASSES INTO FRIDAY, DAYTIME
HIGHS DROP BACK INTO MID/UPPER 20S WITH TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
* A STORM SYSTEM MAY PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH THE TRACK AND ANY IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 30S AND FOR SOME SPOTS THE LOWER 40S.
FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING OVER THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS SHOW SOME CLUSTERING ON TWO
SOLUTIONS. ONE POTENTIAL IDEA IS THE SYSTEM DOES NOT QUITE
PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LEADING TO A PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM WITH A LIGHT/SHOWERY WINTRY MIX AND OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
ANOTHER SCENARIO IS BETTER PHASING WITH HIGHER POPS AND MORE
QPF/WINTRY PRECIP. REGARDLESS OF THE TWO EMERGING SOLUTIONS,
TEMP ARE MARGINAL AND QPF APPEARS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT THIS
TIME. THE TIME FRAME WOULD BE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR ANY POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR
WEATHER OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS ENDING EARLY THIS
MORNING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 01/22/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-519-521-524.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ516-
518-520-522-523-525-526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
067-075-076-083>087.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...JRM/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...RPY
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