338
FXUS61 KRLX 160518
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1218 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THIS WEEKEND. SNOW TO END THE EVENT. COLD NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW AROUND
MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 1200 AM SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. ONLY HAD TO ADJUST FOR POPS TO
MEET CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS
HAVE BEEN INUNDATED WITH WATER, ESPECIALLY SURROUNDING THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND OUR VA COUNTIES. MORE FLOODING IS BEING
REPORTED UP NORTH WHERE THE RAIN IS CURRENTLY SITUATED AND THEN
WILL MOVE AND PUSH OUT TOWARD THE NORTH IN ANTICIPATION FOR THE
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN BUT A QUICK BURST
THEN TAPER OFF TO JUST LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ETA IS
AROUND 4AM TO 6AM FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER OUR AREA AND
THEN SPEED OUT OF HERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST,
HOPEFULLY. THAT IS IF IT DOESNT GET HELD UP BY A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SECOND FRONT BEHIND THE LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE
COOLER WEATHER, ESPECIALLY UP AT THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHO IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WINTER PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WILL PUT OUT A FULL AFD SHORTLY TO EXPLAIN MORE AND THE REST OF
THE FORECAST.
AS OF 840 PM SATURDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR, SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT.
AS OF 650 PM SATURDAY...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.
AS OF 233 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
* FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
* HIGH WIND WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F, DECIDED TO KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. WAA SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WV AND SW VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH AND NORTHERN HALF OF
WV THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FLOODING OF CREEKS, SMALL
STREAMS, RIVER, AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FURTHER NORTH
AFFECTING THE REST OF THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREFORE, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CROSSING WITH A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS, WITH
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BLENDED NBM WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY, PERMITTING RAIN TO TRANSITION TO
RAIN SHOWERS WHILE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. MUCH
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION RAIN INTO SNOW
STARTING ACROSS SE OH BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND UP TO 57 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WIND
ADVISORY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF
ON MONDAY
* BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF MOUNTAIN SNOW MAY ENHANCE TRAVEL IMPACTS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
* WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE
LOWLANDS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH WET SOILS, SOME TREE DAMAGE MAY OCCUR
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EJECT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION ON BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM JUST OVER THE FREEZING
MARK TO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOWER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LOOKS DECENT, BUT SOMEWHAT
SHORT LIVED DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE ENHANCED
LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF PERHAPS A THIRD TO HALF AN INCH. THE BULK OF
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SNOW LIQUID RATIOS APPROACHING 20:1 DURING
THE PERIOD, BUT FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES COULD BE A LITTLE TENUOUS
TO SUPPORT SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS THIS HIGH. OVERALL, THINK CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL EXPECTED. IMPACTS WILL BE ENHANCED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF HIGH RATIO SNOW WITH WINDS GUSTING 45 TO 55 MPH. WHILE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY EXIST FOR A PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHEST
RIDGETOPS, GENERALLY THINK THIS IS BEST HANDLED BY A WINTER STORM
WARNING. MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE WIND CHILLS TOUCH
CRITERIA ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS MONDAY MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF PRODUCTS OUT, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANYTHING FOR THAT THIS EARLY. WILL ALSO EXPAND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES OUT TO MOST OF THE NEIGHBORING ZONES WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLANDS,
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, LIKELY CONCENTRATED IN
LAKE ENHANCED STREAMERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME,
THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO APPROACH ADVISORY TYPE LEVELS, BUT COULD BE
IMPACTFUL FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL
WASHING AWAY SNOW ABATEMENT.
IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 MPH. COUPLED WITH VERY WET SOIL
CONDITIONS, THESE WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TOPPLED SHALLOW ROOTED
TREES AND MAY CAUSE SOME POWER OUTAGES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINT:
* STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR A POTENTIAL
ALL ELEVATION SNOW EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
DRY, BUT COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY RISING TO NEAR
FREEZING.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS JUST COMING ONSHORE TODAY ACROSS THE
PACNW, SO SHOULD SEE SOME HIGHER QUALITY SAMPLING FOR SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING TOWARD A FAIRLY QUICK
HITTING SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CROSSING INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
DEPARTING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY KEEPS
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE JUST TO OUR SOUTH YIELDING AN ALL SNOW EVENT,
BUT COULD CERTAINLY SEE THIS CHANGE WITH EVEN A MINOR CHANGE IN
THE LOW'S TRACK. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE GIVENS 50% CHANCE OR
GREATER FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE IN 24 HOURS FROM US-50 AND SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOW MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS WELL INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY.
QUIET WEATHER THEN BRIEFLY RETURNS WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND CONTINUE TO BECOME ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT BY THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
WEST, THEN NORTHWEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT EVERY SITE AND WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY BE A FACTOR
IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD UNTIL THE WINDS PICK UP AND
CONSEQUENTLY NEGATING THE SHEAR. CIGS WILL HAVE A BREAK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS CURRENTLY, THEN ALL SITES WILL FALL INTO
MVFR AND THEN GO IFR BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN SITES WILL
LIFT OUT JUST ABOVE IFR CIGS FIRST, BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THEN
THE EASTERN SITES BY 00Z, BUT IT WILL REMAIN MVFR. THE RAIN
WILL BE OVER BY THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL, BUT EKN WILL ENDURE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/16/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M L H
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H M M H H M H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M H H M H L H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H L H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M M M L M M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK IN SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ039-040-520-521-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY/ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JZ
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