274
FXUS61 KRLX 160748
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
248 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THIS WEEKEND. SNOW TO END THE EVENT. TURNING VERY COLD NEXT
WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 1200 AM SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK. ONLY HAD TO ADJUST FOR POPS TO
MEET CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS
HAVE BEEN INUNDATED WITH WATER, ESPECIALLY SURROUNDING THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND OUR VA COUNTIES. MORE FLOODING IS BEING
REPORTED UP NORTH WHERE THE RAIN IS CURRENTLY SITUATED AND THEN
WILL MOVE AND PUSH OUT TOWARD THE NORTH IN ANTICIPATION FOR THE
COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE RAIN BUT A QUICK BURST
THEN TAPER OFF TO JUST LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ETA IS
AROUND 4AM TO 6AM FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ENTER OUR AREA AND
THEN SPEED OUT OF HERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST,
HOPEFULLY. THAT IS IF IT DOESNT GET HELD UP BY A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE SEEMS TO BE A SECOND FRONT BEHIND THE LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE
COOLER WEATHER, ESPECIALLY UP AT THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHO IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WINTER PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WILL PUT OUT A FULL AFD SHORTLY TO EXPLAIN MORE AND THE REST OF
THE FORECAST.
AS OF 840 PM SATURDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR, SO HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THAT AREA OVERNIGHT.
AS OF 650 PM SATURDAY...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.
AS OF 233 PM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
* FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
* HIGH WIND WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 32F, DECIDED TO KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. WAA SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WV AND SW VA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE OH AND NORTHERN HALF OF
WV THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FLOODING OF CREEKS, SMALL
STREAMS, RIVER, AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FURTHER NORTH
AFFECTING THE REST OF THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREFORE, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CROSSING WITH A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS, WITH
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BLENDED NBM WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY, PERMITTING RAIN TO TRANSITION TO
RAIN SHOWERS WHILE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. MUCH
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION RAIN INTO SNOW
STARTING ACROSS SE OH BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN
SPREADING EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND UP TO 57 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WIND
ADVISORY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 247 AM SUNDAY...
HEAVY SNOW SLACKS OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUING. A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES GO UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME INSTANCES OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
THE 540 LINE DROPS INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY, WELL TO OUR SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY COLD DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND 20S
ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE FRIGID AS TEENS
WILL BE OBSERVED WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WNW WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING FOR BITTER WIND CHILLS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID, A COLD
WEATHER PRODUCT IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 247 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY WILL BE COLD AND DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM OUR NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS
LIKE SNOWSHOE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT THAT NW WINDS COULD BE BREEZY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ELSEWHERE WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
WATCHING THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DROPS SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
SOUNDINGS LOOK DECENT FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE DGZ. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART
OF A GENERAL 2-4" ACROSS THE AREA; HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WV AND SWVA AND LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF COURSE.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND BECOME SKEWED TO THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER THEN MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THAT COULD BRING A SNOW OR MIX TO THE AREA, MOSTLY THE
MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND TEENS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WITH
FRIDAY MORNING BEING THE COLDEST. MODELS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
MAY WARM SOME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK VERY
COLD THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM SUNDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND CONTINUE TO BECOME ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT BY THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
WEST, THEN NORTHWEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT EVERY SITE AND WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY BE A FACTOR
IN THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD UNTIL THE WINDS PICK UP AND
CONSEQUENTLY NEGATING THE SHEAR. CIGS WILL HAVE A BREAK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS CURRENTLY, THEN ALL SITES WILL FALL INTO
MVFR AND THEN GO IFR BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN SITES WILL
LIFT OUT JUST ABOVE IFR CIGS FIRST, BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THEN
THE EASTERN SITES BY 00Z, BUT IT WILL REMAIN MVFR. THE RAIN
WILL BE OVER BY THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL, BUT EKN WILL ENDURE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/16/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H M H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M L H H M M H L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L M L M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H M M M H H M M H M H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK IN SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ039-040-520-521-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...JZ/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY/ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ
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