419
FXUS61 KRLX 161133
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
633 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH TODAY.
SNOW TO END THE EVENT. TURNING VERY COLD NEXT WEEK WITH A
POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY HAD TO ADJUST WIND SPEED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
AS OF 430 AM SUNDAY...
ADDED IN NICHOLAS COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST FAYETTE COUNTY TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS THE NEW TOTALS FOR THEM INCREASED
TO ABOVE CRITERIA.
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH THIS EARLY TO MID MORNING AND
BY LATE MORNING IT SHOULD EXIT TOWARD THE EAST ACROSS OUR
MOUNTAINS. WITH IT ANOTHER BLAST OF RAIN WHICH MAY GET HIGHER
THAN OUR QPF SINCE ANY PARTS OF THE BROKEN LINE COMING IN COULD
DROP AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE, EASILY. BEHIND THE FRONT WE HAVE
MORE PRECIPITATION, BUT IT WILL BE LIGHTER IN NATURE AND TURN
TO SNOW BY 10AM, GETTING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES FIRST.
AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN, WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE BULK OF
ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO
11 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS AND RIDGES IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. WITH WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT LASTING
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW WHICH
CAN CAUSE REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN THE FORM OF WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS
POSSIBLE, NOT THINK IT WILL BE THE ENTIRE STORY, ESPECIALLY
WITH SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES, THEREFORE HELD OFF
ON RAISING THE WARNING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR NOW. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG
WINDS LASTING THROUGH THIS PERIOD INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO GET IN THE LOW 50'S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
MAYBE NORTHEAST KENTUCKY WHO WILL BE JUST BELOW STARTING OFF THE
MORNING THEN TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A PLUNGE AS THE DAY GOES
BY. BY THE AFTERNOON, THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING
AND BY NIGHTFALL LOW 20S, WITH 10S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF BY THE NIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WHERE CHANCES WILL ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS EQUATE TO LITTLE TO NONE ACROSS OUR KENTUCKY
COUNTIES AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA WITH SMALL AMOUNTS, UP TO 1
INCH, ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND 5 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS OUR ADVISORY
COUNTIES AND THEN AGAIN UP TO 11 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET ANY
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT THIS WOULD BE A SHORT LIST. THERE IS
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME SORT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE AND WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMING ANY AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY NOT MELT, THEREFORE CHANCES OF SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT MAY
NOT BE AN ISSUE.
WITH THESE COLD TEMPERATURES A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -17 DEGREES UNDER
WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS LOCATION.
WINDS GUST UP TO 55MPH ARE STILL ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME
RANGE. THIS PERIOD ENDS WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WITH WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 247 AM SUNDAY...
HEAVY SNOW SLACKS OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUING. A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES GO UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME INSTANCES OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
THE 540 LINE DROPS INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY, WELL TO OUR SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY COLD DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND 20S
ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE FRIGID AS TEENS
WILL BE OBSERVED WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WNW WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING FOR BITTER WIND CHILLS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID, A COLD
WEATHER PRODUCT IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 247 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY WILL BE COLD AND DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM OUR NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS
LIKE SNOWSHOE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT THAT NW WINDS COULD BE BREEZY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ELSEWHERE WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
WATCHING THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DROPS SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
SOUNDINGS LOOK DECENT FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE DGZ. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART
OF A GENERAL 2-4" ACROSS THE AREA; HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WV AND SWVA AND LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF COURSE.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND BECOME SKEWED TO THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER THEN MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THAT COULD BRING A SNOW OR MIX TO THE AREA, MOSTLY THE
MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND TEENS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WITH
FRIDAY MORNING BEING THE COLDEST. MODELS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
MAY WARM SOME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK VERY
COLD THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT BY THE AFTERNOON OUT OF
THE WEST, THEN NORTHWEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GUSTS UP TO
25-35KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT EVERY SITE WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS TAKING
AWAY SHEAR AS A FACTOR. CIGS WILL FALL INTO MVFR AND THEN GO
IFR BY MID AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN SITES WILL LIFT OUT JUST ABOVE
IFR CIGS FIRST, BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THEN THE EASTERN SITES
BY 00Z, BUT IT WILL REMAIN AREA-WIDE MVFR FOR THE DURATION. THE
RAIN WILL BE OVER BY THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL, BUT SITES WILL
ENDURE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
EKN AND POSSIBLY BKW INTO THE NIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WILL START TO IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL PERSIST AT
EKN AND BKW UNDER SNOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/16/25
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY M H M M H M M M H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H M H M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M H L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M L M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M H M M H M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK IN SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ039-040-518>521-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ523-526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...JZ/LTC
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ
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