439
FXUS61 KRLX 161916
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
216 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LINGERS INTO MONDAY. TURNING VERY
COLD NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 214 PM SUNDAY...
PREVIOUS RAINFALL, TOGETHER WITH SATURATED TERRAIN, HAVE PRODUCED
EXTENSIVE AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OF WV AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED AND THE FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER. HOWEVER, WATER LEVELS OF CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, AND SEVERAL FLOOD
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT, BEFORE WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO MONDAY. PLEASE, CONTINUE TO FOLLOW DIRECTIONS FROM THE
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS,
AS YOU AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE SWEEP AWAY BY FLOOD CURRENTS.
THE LAST BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS EXITED NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA AT THE TIME OF WRITING. MEANWHILE, WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SNOW HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM THE WEST,
AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND LINGERING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM A TRACE TO
UNDER ONE INCH, 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF WV, AND UP TO 11 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
UPPER 20S, PERHAPS PRODUCING A FLASH FREEZE OVER ANY WET AREAS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG BRIDGES AND UNDERPASSES INTO MONDAY. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES INTO 17 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF A WIND
ADVISORY AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH 1 PM MONDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SHOULD
REMAIN FROM A TRACE TO UNDER ONE INCH, 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF WV, AND UP TO 11
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
EXPECTED.
COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND THE UPPER TEENS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 247 AM SUNDAY...
HEAVY SNOW SLACKS OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS CONTINUING. A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES GO UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME INSTANCES OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE.
THE 540 LINE DROPS INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY, WELL TO OUR SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY COLD DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S AND 20S
ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE FRIGID AS TEENS
WILL BE OBSERVED WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WNW WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING FOR BITTER WIND CHILLS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID, A COLD
WEATHER PRODUCT IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 247 AM SUNDAY...
TUESDAY WILL BE COLD AND DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN FROM OUR NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCATIONS
LIKE SNOWSHOE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT THAT NW WINDS COULD BE BREEZY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ELSEWHERE WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT.
WATCHING THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE MID WEEK TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DROPS SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
SOUNDINGS LOOK DECENT FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE DGZ. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART
OF A GENERAL 2-4" ACROSS THE AREA; HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WV AND SWVA AND LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF COURSE.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND BECOME SKEWED TO THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE
LOWLANDS THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER THEN MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THAT COULD BRING A SNOW OR MIX TO THE AREA, MOSTLY THE
MOUNTAINS.
COLD WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND TEENS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WITH
FRIDAY MORNING BEING THE COLDEST. MODELS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
MAY WARM SOME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK VERY
COLD THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1243 PM SUNDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE LAST BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVES OVER CKB AND EKN AREA, BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
UNDER STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE MID 30S, ALLOWING PRECIPITATIONS TO TRANSITION INTO
SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT PKB, CKB AND CRW
THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, STAY
SOMEWHAT GUSTY AT TIMES. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EKN AND BKW WHERE IFR WILL STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H M L H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H M L H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H L M H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK IN SNOW, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-515>517.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ039-040-
518>521-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...JZ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ
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