040
FXUS61 KRLX 162327
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
627 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LINGERS INTO MONDAY. TURNING VERY
COLD NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 615 PM SUNDAY...
MAIN CHANGE SINCE LAST UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS AND FOOTHILLS UNTIL 12Z AND TO BUMP
UP POPS. WHILE CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET MOST LOCATIONS, THE
COMBINATION OF RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES, WET ROADS, AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO SLICK ROADS OVERNIGHT.
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS THIS EVENING. UNDER THESE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS, ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK AND LOCALIZED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE PROBABILITY FOR AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2
INCHES IMPROVE ALONG AND EAST OF I-79.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEADLINES OR OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE.
AS OF 214 PM SUNDAY...
PREVIOUS RAINFALL, TOGETHER WITH SATURATED TERRAIN, HAVE PRODUCED
EXTENSIVE AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS OF WV AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED AND THE FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER. HOWEVER, WATER LEVELS OF CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH, AND SEVERAL FLOOD
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT, BEFORE WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO MONDAY. PLEASE, CONTINUE TO FOLLOW DIRECTIONS FROM THE
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS,
AS YOU AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE SWEEP AWAY BY FLOOD CURRENTS.
THE LAST BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS EXITED NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA AT THE TIME OF WRITING. MEANWHILE, WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SNOW HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM THE WEST,
AND WILL CONTINUE SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND LINGERING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM A TRACE TO
UNDER ONE INCH, 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF WV, AND UP TO 11 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
UPPER 20S, PERHAPS PRODUCING A FLASH FREEZE OVER ANY WET AREAS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG BRIDGES AND UNDERPASSES INTO MONDAY. OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES INTO 17 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF A WIND
ADVISORY AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH 1 PM MONDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SHOULD
REMAIN FROM A TRACE TO UNDER ONE INCH, 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF WV, AND UP TO 11
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, CONTINUE WITH WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THESE ZONES UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
EXPECTED.
COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND THE UPPER TEENS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BRINGING MUCH NEEDED
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM
THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS, TO MID
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS, TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE ACTIVE END AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND
LACK OF ANTICIPATED PHASING, CURRENT THINKING IS FOR MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH, WITH
3-6 INCHES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AMID NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, WITH GRADUAL WARMING BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1243 PM SUNDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST AS THE LAST BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVES OVER CKB AND EKN AREA, BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
UNDER STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE MID 30S, ALLOWING PRECIPITATIONS TO TRANSITION INTO
SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT PKB, CKB AND CRW
THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, STAY
SOMEWHAT GUSTY AT TIMES. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EKN AND BKW WHERE IFR WILL STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H M H M M M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H M H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-515>517.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ039-040-
518>521-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ522-523-526.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/GW
NEAR TERM...JRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...ARJ
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