449
FXUS61 KRLX 170740
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LINGERS INTO TUESDAY. TURNING
VERY COLD NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
SNOW BANDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOISTURE WILL START TO TAPER
OFF BY LATE MORNING FOR MOST. THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL INTO THE MID AFTERNOON, BUT POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME AREAS CAN
RECEIVE TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
AND UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BY
12Z LITTLE TO NONE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND ONLY A FEW
MORE TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE HAVE FROZE OVER WET SPOTS WHICH CAN LEAD
TO SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAY AND WALKWAYS.
GUSTY CONDITONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER IT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS DAY ALTHOUGH GUSTS UP TO 25MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWLANDS AND UP TO 40MPH+ IN THE
HIGHEST RIDGES AND PEAKS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL
TAPER DOWN BY EARLY MORNING, BUT WILL STILL BE NON-DIURNAL
MEANING WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AS USUAL AND STILL BE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL AID
IN COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERCOMING THE DECENT MIXING DUE TO
HIGHER SURFACE WIND.
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, WILL NOT SURPASS THE FREEZING
MARK TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO THE TEENS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND WITH LITTLE
CLOUDS IN THE SKY, A LOT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN TAKE PLACE
IF CERTAIN AREAS DECOUPLE, BUT WITH THE WINDS THEY WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP ANY FURTHER THAN WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED WIND, WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE DOWN TO -17 DEGREES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS WHY
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE.
DUE TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL AND SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND
WALKWAYS INTO THE LATE MORNING MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT ITS PROPER
TIME OF 12Z AND NOT BE DROPPED SOONER. SOME OF THE COUNTIES IN
ADVISORIES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THE WINTER STORM WILL EXPIRE THE SAME TIME FOR THE
HIGHER PARTS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES. THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE IN THE MID AFTERNOON WHEN VALUES WILL START
TO SINK BELOW CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BRINGING MUCH NEEDED
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM
THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS, TO MID
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS, TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON THE ACTIVE END AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND
LACK OF ANTICIPATED PHASING, CURRENT THINKING IS FOR MAINLY SNOW
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES NORTH, WITH
3-6 INCHES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AMID NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD, WITH GRADUAL WARMING BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME SITES TAPERING OFF BY THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS ALL AROUND
WITH SOME PLACES UNDER IFR CONDITIONS THAT ARE RECEIVING SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SETTLES DOWN AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS NOT AFFECTING ANY SITES. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT, BUT
MAY HAVE SOME IFR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS, HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING
THAT POTENTIAL WILL END WITH THE SNOW AND CIGS BREAK OUT OF MVFR
BY EARLY EVENING. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FOR THE DURATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 02/17/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L M H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-515>517.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ039-040-518>521-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ522-
523-526.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-526.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-
526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JZ
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